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Упреждающая эконометрическая диагностика: в поисках новой парадигмы // Leading Econometric Diagnostics:in Search of New Paradigm

Author

Listed:
  • N. Ekimova A.

    (Financial University)

  • Н. Екимова А.

    (Финансовый университет)

Abstract

The analysis of existing methods of assessing the effectiveness of monetary policy and models for predictive diagnostics of economic growth, which allowed us to reveal their shared methodological and technical disadvantages was carried out in the article. It is shown that the methodological disadvantages include the fact that the complexity of monetary policy and the process of economic growth requires a special procedure for the selection of those monetary indicators, which serve as real drivers of growth, while today these figures randomly collected from available banking statistics. So, the activity of the central monetary institutions is modeled without reliance on modern institutional theory. Technical disadvantages include the use of models quarterly statistics, provoking serious gaps and differences in performance within year, as well as the fact that most existing proactive models use lags of 2-4 months, which allows you to talk about the effect of pre-emption only with a certain degree of conditionality. In the article the need for the development and use of more advanced pre-emptive indicators and models are shown. В статье проведен анализ существующих методов оценки эффективности денежно-кредитной политики и моделей упреждающей диагностики экономического роста, который позволил выявить их общие методологические и технические недостатки. Показано, что к числу первых относится тот факт, что многофакторность монетарной политики и процесса экономического роста требует особой процедуры отбора тех монетарных показателей, которые выступают в качестве реальных драйверов роста, в то время как сегодня такие показатели хаотично собираются из имеющейся банковской статистики. Тем самым деятельность центральных монетарных институтов моделируется без акцентированной опоры на современную институциональную теорию. К числу технических недостатков можно отнести использование в моделях поквартальной статистики, провоцирующей серьезные разрывы и перепады в показателях внутри года, а также тот факт, что в большинстве существующих упреждающих моделей используются лаги в 2-4 месяца, что позволяет говорить об эффекте упреждения лишь с определенной степенью условности. Указывается необходимость разработки и использования более совершенных упреждающих индикаторов и моделей.

Suggested Citation

  • N. Ekimova A. & Н. Екимова А., 2017. "Упреждающая эконометрическая диагностика: в поисках новой парадигмы // Leading Econometric Diagnostics:in Search of New Paradigm," Мир новой экономики // The world of new economy, Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации // Financial University under The Governtment оf The Russian Federation, issue 4, pages 40-47.
    • Handle: RePEc:scn:wnewec:y:2017:i:4:p:40-47
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    References listed on IDEAS

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