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Современный санкционный режим в отношении России: характеристика и глобальный аспект // Current Sanctions Regime Against Russia: Characteristics and Global Aspect

Author

Listed:
  • V. Arkhipova V.

    (Institute of Economics (Russian Academy of Sciences))

  • В. Архипова В.

    (Институт экономики РАН)

Abstract

The paper is devoted to the analysis of actual dynamic sanctions regime established against Russia in 2014 and lasting till nowadays. The subject matter of the research includes the contents of sanctions regime in regard to Russia (national aspect) and the current condition of world financial system and international trade in the context of developing sanctions as an instrument of foreign policy (global aspect). The object in view is to determine the structure and attributes of complex sanctions regime against Russia, identify and estimate its global consequences. In order to measure the global results of Anti-Russian sanctions and countersanctions we implement statistical analysis using the databases of BIS, IMF and INTRACEN during 2011-2016. The detailed classification of sanctions against Russia is also offered. We came to a conclusion that analyzed sanctions regime has strictly negative global outcomes which can be combined into two groups: real (such as diplomatic, negative expectations of economic agents, “lost trade” and “collateral trade damage”, distortion of trade and financial flows through incorporation of additional mediators, manufactured slowdown of global credit market, lack of responsibility for global financial development typical for sender countries) and potential (i. e. origin of new types of “contagion” effect, risks of financial concentration and “bubbles” in global non-credit markets to occur). Статья посвящена анализу текущего санкционного режима в отношении РФ, установленного в 2014 г. и действующего в настоящее время. Предметом исследования является содержание санкционного режима против России (национальный аспект) и состояние современной мировой финансовой системы и международных торгово-финансовых отношений в контексте развития санкций как инструмента внешней политики (глобальный аспект). Цель данной работы заключается в определении структуры и свойств санкционных мер в отношении РФ, выявлении и оценке глобальных последствий от введения антироссийских комплексных санкций. Количественные характеристики, представленные в исследовании, главным образом базируются на статистическом анализе данных Банка международных расчетов, Международного валютного фонда и Центра международной торговли преимущественно за 2011-2016 гг., а также международных прогнозных значениях развития глобальных торговых и финансовых показателей. В статье приводится детальная классификация санкционных мер против РФ. Сделан вывод о том, что анализируемый динамичный санкционный режим имеет негативные глобальные последствия: реальные (дипломатические, психологические в форме негативных ожиданий субъектов хозяйственной деятельности, потерянная торговля и побочный торговый эффект, искажение торговых и финансовых потоков через удлинение цепочек посредников, искусственное замедление восстановления глобального кредитного рынка, проблема ответственности стран-санкционеров за развитие и реформирование мировой финансовой системы) и потенциальные (возникновение новых видов эффекта «заражения», увеличение рисков концентрации капитала на глобальных некредитных финансовых рынках).

Suggested Citation

  • V. Arkhipova V. & В. Архипова В., 2017. "Современный санкционный режим в отношении России: характеристика и глобальный аспект // Current Sanctions Regime Against Russia: Characteristics and Global Aspect," Мир новой экономики // The world of new economy, Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации // Financial University under The Governtment оf The Russian Federation, issue 2, pages 13-19.
    • Handle: RePEc:scn:wnewec:y:2017:i:2:p:13-19
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Violetta Valerievna Arkhipova & Oleg Olegovich Komolov, 2016. "Development of International Sanctions Regimes in a Historical Perspective," Russian Foreign Economic Journal, Russian Foreign Trade Academy Ministry of economic development of the Russian Federation, issue 3, pages 53-69, March.
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    3. Dreger, Christian & Fidrmuc, Jarko & Kholodilin, Konstantin & Ulbricht, Dirk, 2015. "The Ruble between the hammer and the anvil: Oil prices and economic sanctions," BOFIT Discussion Papers 25/2015, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
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