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Повышение Пенсионного Возраста В России: Итоги 2019 Г. Пример Тюменской Области

Author

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  • Гильтман М. А.
  • Антосик Л. В.
  • Токарева О. Е.
  • Обухович Н. В.

Abstract

Предмет исследования - ситуация на рынке труда в связи с повышением пенсионного возраста в России в 2019 г. и влияние повышения пенсионного возраста на экономическую активность лиц предпенсионного возраста. Цель работы состоит в выявлении факторов экономической активности возрастных работников для определения их перспектив трудоустройства и занятости в связи с повышением пенсионного возраста. Для этого посредством мультиномиального логит-анализа микроданных Обследования рабочей силы Росстата за 2017-2019 гг. была проведена оценка вероятностей занятости, безработицы и неактивности лиц предпенсионного возраста. В моделях учтены социально-демографические характеристики населения нескольких возрастных групп. Полученные оценки показывают небольшое, но численно фиксируемое повышение вероятности занятости и снижение шансов на выход из рабочей силы для лиц предпенсионного возраста в 2019 г. по сравнению с 2017 и 2018 гг. Данные оценки дополнены анализом микроданных о зарегистрированных безработных Тюменской области за 2019 г., предоставленных авторам Департаментом труда и занятости населения Тюменской области. Результаты исследования показали, что важнейшим фактором конкурентоспособности на рынке труда лиц предпенсионного возраста, состоявших на учете в службах занятости в качестве безработных, является наличие высшего образования. Выявлено, что, несмотря на все основные и дополнительные меры поддержки безработных старших возрастных групп, реализуемые в 2019 г. органами службы занятости, именно индивидуальные характеристики предпенсионеров, формирующие их конкурентоспособность на рынке труда, определяют перспективы их трудоустройства и занятости. Делается вывод, что усилия по поддержке занятости лиц старших возрастов целесообразно сосредоточить на профессиональном образовании и развитии востребованных работодателями навыков.

Suggested Citation

  • Гильтман М. А. & Антосик Л. В. & Токарева О. Е. & Обухович Н. В., 2021. "Повышение Пенсионного Возраста В России: Итоги 2019 Г. Пример Тюменской Области," Вопросы государственного и муниципального управления // Public administration issues, НИУ ВШЭ, issue 2, pages 154-182.
    • Handle: RePEc:scn:vgmu00:2021:i:2:p:154-182
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