IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/scn/financ/y2020i5p100-111.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Влияние поведенческого цикла на формирование денежных потоков // Impact of the behavioral Cycle on Cash Flow Formation

Author

Listed:
  • V. Maslennikov V.

    (Financial University)

  • A. Larionov V.

    (Financial University)

  • В. Масленников В.

    (Финансовый университет)

  • А. Ларионов В.

    (Финансовый университет)

Abstract

This study highlights the mechanisms of the behavioral cycle impact on the cash flows generation. The need to develop original approaches to the analysis of the behavioral cycle associated with the dominant behaviors change demonstrates the relevance of the research. The aim of the study is to determine the mechanism of the behavioral cycle impact on the actions of economic entities. The authors use the method of statistical analysis of the Rosstat data from 1998 to 2018 to test two hypotheses: 1. The behavioral cycle impacts the distribution of household income between consumption, savings, and investment; 2. The actions of economic entities with active behaviors do not always lead to further actions of economic entities with an adaptive and reactive type of behavior. The study examines the structure of the household income use and the dynamics of the index of expected changes in the economic situation in Russia in a year. The behavioral cycle has been shown to have a direct impact on consumption and investments. The economic actions of the entities are influenced by the formed dominant behaviors, as well as the macroeconomic conditions. The authors concluded that the behavioral cycle is not able to change the structural imbalances in the economy, however, it can increase their potential impact, since it facilitates the adoption of certain economic decisions by economic entities and largely determines the dynamics and direction of cash flows in financial markets. The behavioral cycle reflects the moods and expectations of economic entities. The behavioral cycle change occurs due to the significant actions performed by economic entities with active behaviors aimed at changing the external environment. The results of the study demonstrate the feasibility of developing countercyclical mechanisms for smoothing out socially unfavorable outcomes of the activities of economic entities at various phases of the behavioral cycle. The authors propose to monitor the phases of the behavioral cycle based on the analysis of the cash flow generation. Авторы раскрывают механизмы влияния поведенческого цикла на формирование денежных потоков. Актуальность исследования обусловлена необходимостью разработки оригинальных подходов к анализу феномена поведенческого цикла, связанного с изменением доминирующих типов поведения. Цель исследования — определение механизма влияния поведенческого цикла на действия экономических субъектов. Авторы используют метод статистического анализа данных Росстата с 1998 по 2018 г. для проверки двух выдвинутых гипотез: 1. Поведенческий цикл приводит к изменению распределения доходов домохозяйств между потреблением, сбережением и инвестициями. Действия субъектов с активным типом поведения не всегда приводят к осуществлению последующих действий со стороны субъектов с адаптивным и реактивным типом поведения. Проанализирована структура использования денежных доходов домохозяйств и динамика индекса ожидаемых изменений экономической ситуации в России через год. Доказано, что поведенческий цикл оказывает непосредственное влияние на показатели потребления и инвестиций. На экономические действия субъектов оказывают воздействие сформированный доминирующий тип поведения, а также сложившиеся макроэкономические условия. Сделан вывод, что поведенческий цикл не способен изменить структурные дисбалансы в экономике, однако может усилить их потенциальное воздействие, поскольку способствует принятию экономическими субъектами определенных экономических решений и в значительной степени определяет динамику и направление движения денежных средств на финансовых рынках. Поведенческий цикл отражает настроения и ожидания экономических субъектов. Смена фазы поведенческого цикла происходит из-за совершения значимых действий субъектами с активным типом поведения, направленных на изменение внешней среды. Результаты исследования демонстрируют целесообразность разработки контрциклических механизмов сглаживания общественно неблагоприятных последствий деятельности экономических субъектов на различных фазах поведенческого цикла. Авторы предлагают осуществлять мониторинг фаз поведенческого цикла на основе анализа формирования денежных потоков.

Suggested Citation

  • V. Maslennikov V. & A. Larionov V. & В. Масленников В. & А. Ларионов В., 2020. "Влияние поведенческого цикла на формирование денежных потоков // Impact of the behavioral Cycle on Cash Flow Formation," Финансы: теория и практика/Finance: Theory and Practice // Finance: Theory and Practice, ФГОБУВО Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации // Financial University under The Government of Russian Federation, vol. 24(5), pages 100-111.
  • Handle: RePEc:scn:financ:y:2020:i:5:p:100-111
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://financetp.fa.ru/jour/article/viewFile/1068/726.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://financetp.fa.ru/jour/article/viewFile/1068/736.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. George A. Akerlof, 1970. "The Market for "Lemons": Quality Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 84(3), pages 488-500.
    2. Schmiedel, Heiko & Hasan, Iftekhar & De Renzis, Tania, 2013. "Retail payments and the real economy," Working Paper Series 1572, European Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Assaf Razin & Efraim Sadka & Chi-Wa Yuen, 1999. "An Information-Based Model of Foreign Direct Investment: The Gains from Trade Revisited," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 6(4), pages 579-596, November.
    2. Tisdell, Clem, 2014. "Information Technology's Impacts on Productivity, Welfare and Social Change: Second Version," Economic Theory, Applications and Issues Working Papers 195701, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    3. Konduru, Srinivasa & Kalaitzandonakes, Nicholas G. & Magnier, Alexandre, 2009. "GMO Testing Strategies and Implications for Trade: A Game Theoretic Approach," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49594, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. König, Philipp J. & Pothier, David, 2018. "Safe but fragile: Information acquisition, sponsor support and shadow bank runs," Discussion Papers 15/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    5. Andrea Attar & Thomas Mariotti & François Salanié, 2021. "Entry-Proofness and Discriminatory Pricing under Adverse Selection," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(8), pages 2623-2659, August.
    6. Reynolds, Travis & Kolodinsky, Jane & Murray, Byron, 2012. "Consumer preferences and willingness to pay for compact fluorescent lighting: Policy implications for energy efficiency promotion in Saint Lucia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 712-722.
    7. Ginger Zhe Jin & Andrew Kato & John A. List, 2010. "That’S News To Me! Information Revelation In Professional Certification Markets," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 48(1), pages 104-122, January.
    8. Ritu Agarwal & Michelle Dugas & Guodong (Gordon) Gao & P. K. Kannan, 2020. "Emerging technologies and analytics for a new era of value-centered marketing in healthcare," Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 9-23, January.
    9. Villas-Boas, Sofia B, 2020. "Reduced Form Evidence on Belief Updating Under Asymmetric Information," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt08c456vk, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    10. Yaofeng Fu & Ruokun Huang & Yiran Sheng, 2017. "Labor Contract Law -An Economic View," Papers 1702.03977, arXiv.org.
    11. Ghosh, Suman, 2007. "Job mobility and careers in firms," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 603-621, June.
    12. Eunsoo Kim & Suyon Kim & Jaehong Lee, 2021. "Do Foreign Investors Affect Carbon Emission Disclosure? Evidence from South Korea," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(19), pages 1-14, September.
    13. Frédéric Gannon & Vincent Touzé, 2006. "Insurance and Optimal Growth," Post-Print halshs-00085181, HAL.
    14. Feser, Daniel & Runst, Petrik, 2015. "Energy efficiency consultants as change agents? Examining the reasons for EECs’ limited success," ifh Working Papers 1 (2015), Volkswirtschaftliches Institut für Mittelstand und Handwerk an der Universität Göttingen (ifh).
    15. Veronica Guerrieri & Robert Shimer, 2018. "Markets with Multidimensional Private Information," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 250-274, May.
    16. Johannes Abeler & Armin Falk & Fabian Kosse, 2021. "Malleability of Preferences for Honesty," CESifo Working Paper Series 9033, CESifo.
    17. Andrea Attar & Thomas Mariotti & François Salanié, 2020. "The Social Costs of Side Trading," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 130(630), pages 1608-1622.
    18. Tahir Andrabi & Jishnu Das & Asim Ijaz Khwaja, 2017. "Report Cards: The Impact of Providing School and Child Test Scores on Educational Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(6), pages 1535-1563, June.
    19. Cowling, Marc & Ughetto, Elisa & Lee, Neil, 2018. "The innovation debt penalty: Cost of debt, loan default, and the effects of a public loan guarantee on high-tech firms," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 166-176.
    20. Kirsten Foss & Nicolai Foss, 2001. "Theoretical isolation in contract theory: suppressing margins and entrepreneurship," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(3), pages 313-339.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    E42; D91; behavioral cycle; cash flows; uncertainty; types of behavior; economic growth; Bank of Russia; monetary policy; поведенческий цикл; денежные потоки; неопределенность; типы поведения; экономический рост; Банк России; денежно-кредитная политика; монетарная политика;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:scn:financ:y:2020:i:5:p:100-111. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Алексей Скалабан (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://financetp.fa.ru .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.