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Феномен Заразных Финансовых Пузырей // The Phenomenon Of Contagious Financial Bubbles

Author

Listed:
  • E. Netunaev B.

    (Lomonosov Moscow State University)

  • Е. Нетунаев Б.

    (МГУ им. М.В. Ломоносова)

Abstract

Topic. The author examines the phenomenon of contagious financial bubble — a situation in which a financial bubble arises on the stock market of one country as a result of events on the stock market of another country. Globalization of financial markets has created the conditions for the migration of financial bubbles from one market to another. As a result, to the classical causes of investors’ euphoria, such as economic growth and credit expansion, it is necessary to add the activity of foreign investors.Purpose. The purpose of this paper is a determination of measures to counter infectious bubbles.Methodology. Based on comparative analysis of theoretical and empirical papers we identified the infectious mechanisms of formation of financial bubbles. We conducted statistical analysis of financial bubbles in the US and China. The analysis considered the dollar index family MSCI: they are calculated by one source, based on a common methodology that allows avoiding distortions due to the different construction principles of indices. Also, we conducted a detailed study of the phenomenon of co-integration stock markets.Results. The article highlights the basic mechanisms of contagious financial bubbles. Based on the comparison of financial bubbles in the US and China we showed that infectious bubbles are formed under the influence of the situation on the financial markets of developed countries. Further, we determined the conditions of infection of financial bubbles. In accordance with the results of the analysis of the causes and mechanisms of occurrence of contagious bubbles, we discussed possible measures of control for the prevention of financial bubbles. Summarizing the results obtained, we identified priority measures to counter infectious bubbles.Conclusions. Efforts to curb financial bubbles (including through measures of monetary policy) are seen as ineffective. It is preferable to take measures to contain the negative consequences of the collapse of prices in consequence of the collapse of financial bubbles. Предмет. Исследуется феномен заразных финансовых пузырей — ситуации, при которой финансовый пузырь возникает на фондовом рынке одной страны в результате событий на фондовом рынке другой страны. Глобализация финансовых рынков создала условия для миграции финансовых пузырей с одних рынков на другие. В результате к классическим причинам эйфории инвесторов, таких как рост экономики и кредитная экспансия, необходимо добавить активность зарубежных инвесторов.Цель. Определение мер противодействия заразным пузырям.Методология. На основе сравнительного анализа теоретических и эмпирических работ определены механизмы формирования заразных финансовых пузырей. Проведен статистический анализ финансовых пузырей в США и Китае. В рамках анализа рассматривались долларовые индексы семейства MSCI: они рассчитываются одним источником, исходя из общей методологии, что позволяет избежать искажений, связанных с разными принципами построения фондовых индексов. Подробно исследовался феномен коинтеграции фондовых рынков.Результаты. В статье выделены основные механизмы формирования заразных финансовых пузырей. На основе сравнения финансовых пузырей в США и Китае показано, что заразные финансовые пузыри формируются под влиянием ситуации на финансовых рынках развитых стран. Определены условия заражения финансовыми пузырями. По итогам анализа причин и механизмов возникновения заразных пузырей рассматриваются возможные меры регулятора для противодействия финансовым пузырям. Обобщая полученные результаты, определены приоритетные меры противодействия заразным пузырям.Выводы. Попытки сдерживания финансовых пузырей (в том числе за счет мер денежно-кредитной политики) представляются неэффективными. Предпочтительно предпринимать меры сдерживания негативных последствий обвала цен в результате схлопывания финансовых пузырей.

Suggested Citation

  • E. Netunaev B. & Е. Нетунаев Б., 2017. "Феномен Заразных Финансовых Пузырей // The Phenomenon Of Contagious Financial Bubbles," Финансы: теория и практика/Finance: Theory and Practice // Finance: Theory and Practice, ФГОБУВО Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации // Financial University under The Government of Russian Federation, vol. 21(6), pages 154-165.
    • Handle: RePEc:scn:financ:y:2017:i:6:p:154-165
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