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Соглашение О Свободной Торговле Асеан И Эффективность Внешнеэкономической Деятельности Вьетнама // The Asean Free Trade Agreement And Vietnam’S Trade Efficiency

Author

Listed:
  • T. Hai H.

    (Banking Academy of Vietnam)

  • N. Thang D.

    (Banking Academy of Vietnam)

  • Т. Хаи Х.

    (Banking Academy of Vietnam)

  • Н. Тханг Д.

    (Banking Academy of Vietnam)

Abstract

This study employs a stochastic gravity model to estimate efficiency performance of Vietnam’s trade with its main trading partners from 1995-2015. Trade efficiency is measured as the ratio of actual trade volume to the maximum likelihood. Moreover, it analyzes the effects of both natural and man-made trade barriers on trade efficiency. The empirical results suggest that the actual trade of Vietnam appears to be much smaller than a possible efficiency level and that there is large space for further progress. Export efficiency outweighs that of import. Vietnam’s AFTA membership has in general improved the trade efficiency, whereas tariffs and domestic devaluation downgrade it. Our findings lead to the recommendation that Vietnam should join more Free Trade Agreements (FATs) and eradicate the man-made barriers. В данном исследовании проводится оценка эффективности внешней торговли Вьетнама с основными торговыми партнерами за период 1995-2015 гг. с использованием стохастической гравитационной модели. Эффективность торговли определяется как отношение фактического объема торговли и максимально вероятного объема. Кроме того, анализируются последствия влияния как природных, так и искусственных торговых барьеров на эффективность торговли. Эмпирические результаты свидетельствуют о том, что фактическая торговля Вьетнама оказывается значительно меньше, чем возможный уровень эффективности торговли и что существуют большие возможности для дальнейшего прогресса. Эффективность экспорта превышает эффективность импорта. Членство Вьетнама в АФТА повысило в целом эффективность торговли, тогда как тарифы и внутренняя девальвация способствовали ее снижению. Авторы статьи считают, что необходимо провести ликвидацию «рукотворных» барьеров в свободной торговле, тем самым повысив эффективность и количество заключаемых соглашений о торговле во Вьетнаме.

Suggested Citation

  • T. Hai H. & N. Thang D. & Т. Хаи Х. & Н. Тханг Д., 2017. "Соглашение О Свободной Торговле Асеан И Эффективность Внешнеэкономической Деятельности Вьетнама // The Asean Free Trade Agreement And Vietnam’S Trade Efficiency," Review of Business and Economics Studies // Review of Business and Economics Studies, Финансовый Университет // Financial University, vol. 5(1), pages 60-69.
    • Handle: RePEc:scn:00rbes:y:2017:i:1:p:60-69
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