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The Effect of Overlapping Aggregation on Time Series Models: An Application to the Unemployment Rate in Brazil

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  • Hotta, Luiz K.
  • Morettin, Pedro A.
  • Pereira, Pedro L. Valls

Abstract

The unemployment rate of SEADE/DIEESE, Brazil, is reported as a weighted average of the last three months. If xt denotes the original series observed at a certain time interval, the published series, yt, is roughly constructed as a weighted average of the last observations, i.e., (...) for (...), ... with the restrictions that (...) and (...) for every i and t. This problem is a special case of the overlapping aggregation or the use of moving-average filters in time serie models. This paper studies the effect of using moving-average filters in time series models, assuming that the original series could be characterized by an ARIMA process. It is also studied the effect of this kind of aggregation on identification, estimation, prediction and on the seasonal and trend components of time series models as well as detecting turning points and on the dynamic relationship between variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Hotta, Luiz K. & Morettin, Pedro A. & Pereira, Pedro L. Valls, 1992. "The Effect of Overlapping Aggregation on Time Series Models: An Application to the Unemployment Rate in Brazil," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 12(2), November.
    • Handle: RePEc:sbe:breart:v:12:y:1992:i:2:a:2992
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ghysels, Eric & Perron, Pierre, 1993. "The effect of seasonal adjustment filters on tests for a unit root," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1-2), pages 57-98.
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    5. Sargan, J D & Bhargava, Alok, 1983. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Regression Models with First Order Moving Average Errors When the Root Lies on the Unit Circle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(3), pages 799-820, May.
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    7. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    8. Harvey, A C & Todd, P H J, 1983. "Forecasting Economic Time Series with Structural and Box-Jenkins Models: A Case Study: Response," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 1(4), pages 313-315, October.
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    1. Athanasopoulos, George & Hyndman, Rob J. & Kourentzes, Nikolaos & Panagiotelis, Anastasios, 2024. "Forecast reconciliation: A review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 430-456.

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