IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/vikjou/v43y2018i3p152-170.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Interest Rate Sensitivity of Non-banking Financial Sector in India

Author

Listed:
  • Renu Ghosh
  • K. Latha
  • Sunita Gupta

Abstract

Executive Summary Before financial liberalization, interest rates were administered and exhibited near-zero volatility. The easing of financial repression in the 1990s generated experiences with interest rate volatility in India. Administrative restrictions on interest rates in India have been steadily eased since 1993. This has led to increased interest rate risk for financial firms. Most research studies have almost exclusively focused on the developed countries especially the banking sector of the United States. The present study attempts to examine the interest rate risk of non-banking financial institutions in India by using the methodology of panel regression and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) (1, 1) model for the period from 1 April 1996 to 30 August 2014. The sample used in the study consists of all non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) listed in the S&P CNX 500 index which has continuous availability of share prices over the study period. The study also examines the impact of unanticipated changes in interest rate on stock returns of NBFCs. The Box–Jenkins methodology is applied to calculate unanticipated changes in interest rate variable, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) (24, 1, 0) model. The time series used in the present study is found to be stationary at the first logarithmic difference. Stock returns exhibit significant exposure with both market returns and interest rate changes. The interest rate sensitivity of large, medium, and small financial institutions is also found to be different. Estimation results for the variance equation in GARCH (1, 1) model suggest that the volatility for individual firm stock returns is time-variant. The ARCH and GARCH coefficients are found to be significant, providing evidence against using traditional model (ordinary least square (OLS)) that assumes time-invariant volatility. This implies that the market has a memory longer than one period and volatility is more sensitive to its own lagged values than it is to new surprises in the market. This study also investigates the possible determinants that account for cross-sectional variation in the interest rate sensitivity of NBFCs. It is found that the size of the firm is the preferred determinant that accounts for cross-sectional variation in the interest rate sensitivity of finance companies. When unanticipated changes in interest rate are used in lieu of actual interest rate changes, not much difference is observed in the significance coefficients. The only significant difference observed is in the magnitude. The impact of actual interest rate changes is more than the impact of unanticipated interest rate changes in absolute terms. This difference in the magnitude of impact arises because actual data incorporate movement in both anticipated and unanticipated components of interest rate. Hence, NBFCs managers and regulators should adopt policies and strategies to avoid the transmission of interest rate risk in their stock returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Renu Ghosh & K. Latha & Sunita Gupta, 2018. "Interest Rate Sensitivity of Non-banking Financial Sector in India," Vikalpa: The Journal for Decision Makers, , vol. 43(3), pages 152-170, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:vikjou:v:43:y:2018:i:3:p:152-170
    DOI: 10.1177/0256090918792803
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0256090918792803
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/0256090918792803?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lynge, Morgan J. & Zumwalt, J. Kenton, 1980. "An Empirical Study of the Interest Rate Sensitivity of Commercial Bank Returns: A Multi-Index Approach," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(3), pages 731-742, September.
    2. Flannery, Mark J & James, Christopher M, 1984. "The Effect of Interest Rate Changes on the Common Stock Returns of Financial Institutions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1141-1153, September.
    3. Hausman, Jerry, 2015. "Specification tests in econometrics," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 38(2), pages 112-134.
    4. Gloria M. Soto Pacheco & Cristóbal González & Laura Ballester & Román Ferrer, 2009. "Determinants of interest rate exposure of Spanish banking industry," Working Papers. Serie EC 2009-07, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    5. Stephen A. Ross, 2013. "The Arbitrage Theory of Capital Asset Pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 1, pages 11-30, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. H. A. Benink & C. C. P. Wolff, 2000. "Survey Data and the Interest Rate Sensitivity of US Bank Stock Returns," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 29(2), pages 201-213, July.
    7. Asprem, Mads, 1989. "Stock prices, asset portfolios and macroeconomic variables in ten European countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(4-5), pages 589-612, September.
    8. Martin, John D. & Keown, Arthur J., 1977. "Interest Rate Sensitivity and Portfolio Risk," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(2), pages 181-195, June.
    9. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
    10. Ila Patnaik & Ajay Shah, 2005. "Interest-rate risk in the Indian banking system," Risk and Insurance 0501003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Stone, Bernell K., 1974. "Systematic Interest-Rate Risk in a Two-Index Model of Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(5), pages 709-721, November.
    12. French, Kenneth R & Ruback, Richard S & Schwert, G William, 1983. "Effects of Nominal Contracting on Stock Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 70-96, February.
    13. E. Dinenis & S. K. Staikouras, 1998. "Interest rate changes and common stock returns of financial institutions: evidence from the UK," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 113-127.
    14. Choi, Jongmoo Jay & Elyasiani, Elyas & Kopecky, Kenneth J., 1992. "The sensitivity of bank stock returns to market, interest and exchange rate risks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 983-1004, September.
    15. Kasman, Saadet & Vardar, Gülin & Tunç, Gökçe, 2011. "The impact of interest rate and exchange rate volatility on banks' stock returns and volatility: Evidence from Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1328-1334, May.
    16. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pariyada Sukcharoensin, 2013. "Time-Varying Market, Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Risks of Thai Commercial Banks," Asian Academy of Management Journal of Accounting and Finance (AAMJAF), Penerbit Universiti Sains Malaysia, vol. 9(1), pages 25-45.
    2. Elyasiani, Elyas & Mansur, Iqbal, 1998. "Sensitivity of the bank stock returns distribution to changes in the level and volatility of interest rate: A GARCH-M model," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 535-563, May.
    3. Papadamou, Stephanos & Siriopoulos, Costas, 2014. "Interest rate risk and the creation of the Monetary Policy Committee: Evidence from banks’ and life insurance companies’ stocks in the UK," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 45-67.
    4. PRITI Verma, 2016. "The Impact Of Exchange Rates And Interest Rates On Bank Stock Returns: Evidence From U.S. Banks," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 11(1), pages 124-139, April.
    5. Susan Ryan & Andrew C. Worthington, 2002. "Time-Varying Market, Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Risk in Australian Bank Portfolio Stock Returns: A Garch-M Approach," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 112, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology.
    6. Xiangnan Meng & Xin Deng, 2013. "Interest Rate and Foreign Exchange Sensitivity of Bank Stock Returns: Evidence from China," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 17(1-2), pages 77-106, March - J.
    7. Jill L. Wetmore & John R. Brick, 1994. "Commercial Bank Risk: Market, Interest Rate, And Foreign Exchange," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 17(4), pages 585-596, December.
    8. Johnson Worlanyo Ahiadorme & Emmanuel Sonyo & Godwin Ahiase, 2019. "Time Series Analysis of Interest Rates Volatility and Stock Returns in Ghana," Emerging Economy Studies, International Management Institute, vol. 5(2), pages 89-102, November.
    9. Zaghum Umar & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Román Ferrer & Francisco Jareño, 2018. "Does Shariah compliance make interest rate sensitivity of Islamic equities lower? An industry level analysis under different market states," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(42), pages 4500-4521, September.
    10. Francisco Jareno, 2008. "Spanish stock market sensitivity to real interest and inflation rates: an extension of the Stone two-factor model with factors of the Fama and French three-factor model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(24), pages 3159-3171.
    11. Tyler K. Jensen & Robert R. Johnson & Michael J. McNamara, 2019. "Funding conditions and insurance stock returns: Do insurance stocks really benefit from rising interest rate regimes?," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 22(4), pages 367-391, December.
    12. Gloria M. Soto Pacheco & Cristóbal González & Laura Ballester & Román Ferrer, 2009. "Determinants of interest rate exposure of Spanish banking industry," Working Papers. Serie EC 2009-07, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    13. Aloui Mouna & Jarboui Anis, 2017. "Stock Market, Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Risk Effects on non Financial Stock Returns During the Financial Crisis," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 8(3), pages 898-915, September.
    14. Kasman, Saadet & Vardar, Gülin & Tunç, Gökçe, 2011. "The impact of interest rate and exchange rate volatility on banks' stock returns and volatility: Evidence from Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1328-1334, May.
    15. Sellin, Peter, 1998. "Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Working Paper Series 72, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    16. Peter Sellin, 2001. "Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(4), pages 491-541, September.
    17. Söhnke Bartram, 2002. "The Interest Rate Exposure of Nonfinancial Corporations," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 6(1), pages 101-125.
    18. Jiranyakul, Komain, 2016. "Are Thai Equity Index Returns Sensitive to Interest and Exchange Rate Risks?," MPRA Paper 71602, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Jareño, Francisco & Navarro, Eliseo, 2010. "Stock interest rate risk and inflation shocks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 201(2), pages 337-348, March.
    20. Umut UYAR & Sinem KANGALLI UYAR & Altan GOKCE, 2016. "Gosterge Faiz Orani Dalgalanmalari Ve Bist Endeksleri Arasindaki Iliskinin Esanli Kantil Regresyon Ile Analizi," Ege Academic Review, Ege University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 16(4), pages 587-598.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:vikjou:v:43:y:2018:i:3:p:152-170. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.