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Survey data and the interest rate sensitivity of U.S. bank stock returns

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  • Harald A. Benink
  • Christian C. P. Wolffe

Abstract

type="main" xml:lang="en"> In this paper, we provide empirical evidence on the interest rate sensitivity of the stock returns of the twenty largest US bank holding companies. The main contribution of the paper is the use of survey data to model the unexpected interest rate variable, which is an alternative approach to the existing literature. We find evidence of significant negative interest rate sensitivity during the early 1980s, and evidence of declining significance in the late 1980s and early 1990s. This result is also obtained when using the forecast errors of ARIMA processes to model the unexpected movement in the interest rate.
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Suggested Citation

  • Harald A. Benink & Christian C. P. Wolffe, 1998. "Survey data and the interest rate sensitivity of U.S. bank stock returns," Proceedings 604, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhpr:604
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    Cited by:

    1. Pariyada Sukcharoensin, 2013. "Time-Varying Market, Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Risks of Thai Commercial Banks," Asian Academy of Management Journal of Accounting and Finance (AAMJAF), Penerbit Universiti Sains Malaysia, vol. 9(1), pages 25-45.
    2. Papadamou, Stephanos & Siriopoulos, Costas, 2014. "Interest rate risk and the creation of the Monetary Policy Committee: Evidence from banks’ and life insurance companies’ stocks in the UK," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 45-67.
    3. Francisco Jareno, 2008. "Spanish stock market sensitivity to real interest and inflation rates: an extension of the Stone two-factor model with factors of the Fama and French three-factor model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(24), pages 3159-3171.
    4. Antonio Roma, 2006. "Common factors and balance sheet structure of major European banks," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 59(237), pages 123-170.
    5. Schüler, Martin, 2002. "The threat of systemic risk in banking: evidence for Europe," ZEW Discussion Papers 02-21, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    6. Schüler, Martin & Schröder, Michael, 2003. "Systemic Risk in European Banking: Evidence from Bivariate GARCH Models," ZEW Discussion Papers 03-11, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    7. Foos, Daniel & Lütkebohmert, Eva & Markovych, Mariia & Pliszka, Kamil, 2017. "Euro area banks' interest rate risk exposure to level, slope and curvature swings in the yield curve," Discussion Papers 24/2017, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    8. Kiran Batool, 2021. "Impact of Interest Rates on Stock Index: Case of Pakistan Stock Exchange," International Journal of Business and Economic Affairs (IJBEA), Sana N. Maswadeh, vol. 6(1), pages 1-12.
    9. Jareño, Francisco & Navarro, Eliseo, 2010. "Stock interest rate risk and inflation shocks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 201(2), pages 337-348, March.
    10. Renu Ghosh & K. Latha & Sunita Gupta, 2018. "Interest Rate Sensitivity of Non-banking Financial Sector in India," Vikalpa: The Journal for Decision Makers, , vol. 43(3), pages 152-170, September.
    11. Antonio Roma, 2006. "Common factors and balance sheet structure of major European banks," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 59(237), pages 123-170.
    12. Massomeh Hajilee & Farhang Niroomand, 2018. "The impact of interest rate volatility on financial market inclusion: evidence from emerging markets," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 42(2), pages 352-368, April.

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    Keywords

    Interest rates; Bank stocks;

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