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Race-based Neighbourhood Projection: A Proposed Framework for Understanding New Data on Racial Integration

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  • Ingrid Gould Ellen

    (Wagner School of Public Service, New York University, 4 Washington Square North, New York, NY 10012, USA, ingrid.ellen@nyu.edu.)

Abstract

This paper outlines the race-based, neighbourhood projection hypothesis which holds that, in choosing neighbourhoods, households care less about present racial composition than they do about expectations about future neighbourhood conditions, such as school quality, property values and crime. Race remains relevant, however, since households tend to associate a growing minority presence with structural decline. Using a unique data-set that links households to their neighbourhoods, this paper estimates both exit and entry models and then constructs a simple simulation model that predicts the course of racial change in different communities. Doing so, the paper concludes that the empirical evidence is more consistent with the race-based projection hypothesis than with other common explanations for neighbourhood racial transition.

Suggested Citation

  • Ingrid Gould Ellen, 2000. "Race-based Neighbourhood Projection: A Proposed Framework for Understanding New Data on Racial Integration," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 37(9), pages 1513-1533, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:urbstu:v:37:y:2000:i:9:p:1513-1533
    DOI: 10.1080/00420980020080241
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ad Coenen & Pieter-Paul Verhaeghe & Bart Van de Putte, 2019. "Ethnic Residential Segregation: A Family Matter? An Integration of Household Composition Characteristics into the Residential Segregation Literature," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 35(5), pages 1023-1052, December.
    2. Kwan Ok Lee, 2014. "Why Do Renters Stay In Or Leave Certain Neighborhoods? The Role Of Neighborhood Characteristics, Housing Tenure Transitions, And Race," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(5), pages 755-787, November.
    3. Tatjana Ibraimovic & Stephane Hess, 2017. "Changes in the ethnic composition of neighbourhoods: Analysis of household's response and asymmetric preference structures," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 96(4), pages 759-784, November.

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