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Uncertainty, Crowding Aversion and Tourism Aversion in Tourism Destinations

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  • Simone Marsiglio

    (University of Wollongong, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Northfields Avenue, Wollongong, NSW 2522, Australia)

Abstract

The author analyses the implications of crowding aversion and tourism aversion for the economic performance of tourism destinations in the case of uncertain tourist inflows. He analytically characterizes all possible scenarios, showing how different the preferences of tourists (towards crowding) and residents (towards tourism) interact and affect the economic outcome. The paper shows that, when tourists are crowding-averse (crowding lovers), uncertainty leads to deterioration (improvement) of economic performance, while it does not affect performance at all when tourists are crowding-indifferent. However, assessing how this will be reflected in welfare changes is more complex, since it depends also on the degree of tourism aversion among local residents.

Suggested Citation

  • Simone Marsiglio, 2016. "Uncertainty, Crowding Aversion and Tourism Aversion in Tourism Destinations," Tourism Economics, , vol. 22(1), pages 111-123, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:22:y:2016:i:1:p:111-123
    DOI: 10.5367/te.2014.0416
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chang,Fwu-Ranq, 2009. "Stochastic Optimization in Continuous Time," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521541947, September.
    2. Simone Marsiglio, 2015. "Economic Growth and Environment: Tourism as a Trigger for Green Growth," Tourism Economics, , vol. 21(1), pages 183-204, February.
    3. Schubert, Stefan Franz & Brida, Juan Gabriel & Risso, Wiston Adrián, 2011. "The impacts of international tourism demand on economic growth of small economies dependent on tourism," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 377-385.
    4. Smith William T, 2007. "Inspecting the Mechanism Exactly: A Closed-form Solution to a Stochastic Growth Model," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-33, August.
    5. Fabio Cerina, 2007. "Tourism Specialization and Environmental Sustainability in a Dynamic Economy," Tourism Economics, , vol. 13(4), pages 553-582, December.
    6. Marta Meleddu, 2014. "Tourism, Residents’ Welfare And Economic Choice: A Literature Review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 376-399, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Carolyn Chisadza & Matthew Clance & Rangan Gupta & Peter Wanke, 2022. "Uncertainty and tourism in Africa," Tourism Economics, , vol. 28(4), pages 964-978, June.
    2. Simone Marsiglio, 2018. "On the implications of tourism specialization and structural change in tourism destinations," Tourism Economics, , vol. 24(8), pages 945-962, December.
    3. Simone Marsiglio, 2017. "On the carrying capacity and the optimal number of visitors in tourism destinations," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(3), pages 632-646, May.
    4. Eva M. Buitrago & Rocío Yñiguez, 2021. "Measuring Overtourism: A Necessary Tool for Landscape Planning," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-17, August.
    5. Ismet GOCER & Peter KOVACS, 2023. "The effects of geopolitical risks on tourism revenues of the Middle East and Asian countries," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(1(634), S), pages 77-90, Spring.

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