IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/toueco/v28y2022i4p964-978.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Uncertainty and tourism in Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Carolyn Chisadza

    (University of Pretoria, South Africa)

  • Matthew Clance

    (University of Pretoria, South Africa)

  • Rangan Gupta

    (University of Pretoria, South Africa)

  • Peter Wanke

    (Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil)

Abstract

Tourism growth is on the rise in Africa, and yet limited empirical evidence exists that explores the factors that drive this important contributor of economic growth on the continent. Previous literature focuses mainly on developed countries. This study weighs in on the recent debate on African tourism by providing evidence on the role that economic uncertainties have on tourist arrivals. Using panel data from 1996 to 2017, we find that economic uncertainties reduce tourist arrivals in Africa in comparison to other global regions, such as Europe. Further disaggregation by African regions reveals that economic uncertainties in West and North African regions drive these adverse results. These regions have been the hardest hit by political instability and social unrest during the period under review, which may have acted as a deterrent to tourists.

Suggested Citation

  • Carolyn Chisadza & Matthew Clance & Rangan Gupta & Peter Wanke, 2022. "Uncertainty and tourism in Africa," Tourism Economics, , vol. 28(4), pages 964-978, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:28:y:2022:i:4:p:964-978
    DOI: 10.1177/1354816620969998
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1354816620969998
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/1354816620969998?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Faruk Balli & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Gazi Salah Uddin, 2018. "A tale of two shocks: What do we learn from the impacts of economic policy uncertainties on tourism?," Post-Print hal-02044848, HAL.
    2. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chien, Mei-Se, 2008. "Structural breaks, tourism development, and economic growth: Evidence from Taiwan," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 77(4), pages 358-368.
    3. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    4. Gholipour, Hassan Fereidouni & Tajaddini, Reza, 2014. "Cultural dimensions and outbound tourism," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 203-205.
    5. Axel Dreher, 2006. "Does globalization affect growth? Evidence from a new index of globalization," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(10), pages 1091-1110.
    6. Eric Neumayer, 2004. "The Impact of Political Violence on Tourism," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 48(2), pages 259-281, April.
    7. Rinaldo Brau & A. Lanza & F. Pigliaru, 2006. "How fast are small tourist countries growing? The 1980-2003 evidence," Working Paper CRENoS 200614, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    8. Dragouni, Mina & Filis, George & Gavriilidis, Konstantinos & Santamaria, Daniel, 2016. "Sentiment, mood and outbound tourism demand," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 80-96.
    9. Quintal, Vanessa Ann & Lee, Julie Anne & Soutar, Geoffrey N., 2010. "Risk, uncertainty and the theory of planned behavior: A tourism example," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 797-805.
    10. Brau, Rinaldo & Lanza, Alessandro & Pigliaru, Francesco, 2007. "How Fast are Small Tourism Countries Growing? Evidence from the Data for 1980–2003," MPRA Paper 82776, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. JG. Brida & M. Pulina, 2010. "A literature review on the tourism-led-growth hypothesis," Working Paper CRENoS 201017, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    12. Seetaram, Neelu & Forsyth, Peter & Dwyer, Larry, 2016. "Measuring price elasticities of demand for outbound tourism using competitiveness indices," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 65-79.
    13. Simone Marsiglio, 2016. "Uncertainty, Crowding Aversion and Tourism Aversion in Tourism Destinations," Tourism Economics, , vol. 22(1), pages 111-123, February.
    14. Rinaldo Brau & Alessandro Lanza & Francesco Pigliaru, 2007. "How Fast are Small Tourism Countries Growing? Evidence from the Data for 1980–2003," Tourism Economics, , vol. 13(4), pages 603-613, December.
    15. Schubert, Stefan Franz & Brida, Juan Gabriel & Risso, Wiston Adrián, 2011. "The impacts of international tourism demand on economic growth of small economies dependent on tourism," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 377-385.
    16. Christoph Vietze, 2011. "What's Pushing International Tourism Expenditures?," Tourism Economics, , vol. 17(2), pages 237-260, April.
    17. George, Richard, 2010. "Visitor perceptions of crime-safety and attitudes towards risk: The case of Table Mountain National Park, Cape Town," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 806-815.
    18. Christine Lim, 1997. "An Econometric Classification and Review of International Tourism Demand Models," Tourism Economics, , vol. 3(1), pages 69-81, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Anobua Acha Arnaud Martial & Huang Dechun & Liton Chandra Voumik & Md. Jamsedul Islam & Shapan Chandra Majumder, 2023. "Investigating the Influence of Tourism, GDP, Renewable Energy, and Electricity Consumption on Carbon Emissions in Low-Income Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(12), pages 1-21, June.
    2. Jonathan E. Ogbuabor & Ekene ThankGod Emeka & Emmanuel O. Nwosu, 2023. "Effects of terrorism and economic policy uncertainty on economic complexity in Africa: A study of the moderating role of governance institutions," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 91(4), pages 528-557, December.
    3. Rufei Zhang & Haizhen Zhang & Qingzhu Fan & Wang Gao & Xue Luo & Shixiong Yang, 2022. "Partisan Conflict, National Security Policy Uncertainty and Tourism," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-22, August.
    4. Zsuzsanna Bacsi & Mesfin Bekele Gebbisa & Lóránt Dénes Dávid & Zsolt Hollósy, 2023. "Pastoralism and Tourism in Eastern Africa—Quantitative Analysis from 2004 to 2018," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-18, June.
    5. Liton Chandra Voumik & Md. Hasanur Rahman & Shohel Md. Nafi & Md. Akter Hossain & Abdul Rahim Ridzuan & Nora Yusma Mohamed Yusoff, 2023. "Modelling Sustainable Non-Renewable and Renewable Energy Based on the EKC Hypothesis for Africa’s Ten Most Popular Tourist Destinations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-19, February.
    6. James E Payne & Saban Nazlioglu & Andrea Mervar, 2023. "Economic policy uncertainty and international tourist arrivals: A disaggregated analysis of the Croatian Adriatic coast," Tourism Economics, , vol. 29(4), pages 986-1004, June.
    7. Gizem Uzuner & Sudeshna Ghosh, 2021. "Do pandemics have an asymmetric effect on tourism in Italy?," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 55(5), pages 1561-1579, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Simone Marsiglio, 2018. "On the implications of tourism specialization and structural change in tourism destinations," Tourism Economics, , vol. 24(8), pages 945-962, December.
    2. Gangwei Cai & Baoping Zou & Xiaoting Chi & Xincheng He & Yuang Guo & Wen Jiang & Qian Wu & Yujin Zhang & Yanna Zhou, 2023. "Neighborhood Spatio-Temporal Impacts of SDG 8.9: The Case of Urban and Rural Exhibition-Driven Tourism by Multiple Methods," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-37, January.
    3. Raffaele Paci & Emanuela Marrocu, 2014. "Tourism and regional growth in Europe," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 93, pages 25-50, November.
    4. Robertico Croes & Manuel A. Rivera, 2017. "Tourism’s potential to benefit the poor," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(1), pages 29-48, February.
    5. Jiekuan Zhang & Yan Zhang, 2021. "Tourism, economic growth, energy consumption, and CO2 emissions in China," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(5), pages 1060-1080, August.
    6. Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser & MANESCHIÖLD, Per-Ola, 2021. "Testing for the Tourism Led Economic Growth Hypothesis in Sweden with Structural Breaks," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 74(3), pages 293-310.
    7. Azeez, Rasheed Oluwaseyi, 2019. "Is Tourism a Sustainable Haven for Economic Growth in North African Countries? An Evidence From Panel Analysis," MPRA Paper 93449, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Stefan F. Schubert, 2016. "A short-run model of a two-sector economy with tourism and unemployment," Tourism Economics, , vol. 22(4), pages 763-778, August.
    9. Theodore Panagiotidis & Thomas Panagiotou & Maurizio Mussoni, 2012. "Tourism Led Growth: Evidence from Panel Cointegration Tests," Working Paper series 74_12, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    10. Rukmani Gounder, 2022. "Tourism-led and economic-driven nexus in Mauritius: Spillovers and inclusive development policies in the case of an African nation," Tourism Economics, , vol. 28(4), pages 1040-1058, June.
    11. Rainer Andergassen & Guido Candela & Paolo Figini, 2017. "The management of tourism destinations," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(1), pages 49-65, February.
    12. Marrocu, Emanuela & Paci, Raffaele, 2011. "They arrive with new information. Tourism flows and production efficiency in the European regions," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 750-758.
    13. Dutta, Nabamita & Kar, Saibal, 2018. "Relating rule of law and budgetary allocation for tourism: Does per capita income growth make a difference for Indian states?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 263-271.
    14. José Manuel Ordóñez-de-Haro & Jordi Perdiguero & Juan-Luis Jiménez, 2020. "Fuel prices at petrol stations in touristic cities," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(1), pages 45-69, February.
    15. Chu, Angus C. & Liao, Chih-Hsing & Xu, Rongxin & Chen, Ping-Ho, 2024. "Dynamic effects of tourism shocks on innovation in an open-economy Schumpeterian growth model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    16. Tinoco-Zermeño, Miguel Ángel & Torres-Preciado, Victor Hugo & Venegas-Martínez, Francisco (ed.), 2017. "Los desafíos de la economía mexicana. El sector externo I," Sección de Estudios de Posgrado e Investigación de la Escuela Superios de Economía del Instituto Politécnico Nacional, Escuela Superior de Economía, Instituto Politécnico Nacional, edition 1, volume 1, number 018, January.
    17. Liu, Jingjing & Nijkamp, Peter & Lin, Derong, 2017. "Urban-rural imbalance and Tourism-Led Growth in China," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 24-36.
    18. Jianping Zha & Zhiyong Li, 2017. "Drivers of tourism growth," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(5), pages 941-962, August.
    19. Herman Sahni & Christian Nsiah & Bichaka Fayissa, 2021. "The African economic growth experience and tourism receipts: A threshold analysis and quantile regression approach," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(5), pages 915-932, August.
    20. Simone Marsiglio & Marco Tolotti, 2024. "The tourism area life cycle hypothesis: A micro-foundation," Tourism Economics, , vol. 30(2), pages 345-360, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Africa; panel data; tourism; uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • Z32 - Other Special Topics - - Tourism Economics - - - Tourism and Development
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:28:y:2022:i:4:p:964-978. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.