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Forecasting Tourism Demand: The Role of Seasonality

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  • Anna Serena Vergori

    (University of Salento, via per Monteroni, 73100 Lecce, Italy)

Abstract

Most tourism destinations are affected by seasonality. Seasonal demand causes various problems for local firms and administrations hampering the efficient use of available facilities and the development of local capabilities. This paper discusses, from an econometric point of view, another important issue stemming from strong seasonality: the effect on forecasting tourist flows. This aspect of seasonality is addressed through an analysis of tourist arrivals in the Province of Lecce, southern Italy.

Suggested Citation

  • Anna Serena Vergori, 2012. "Forecasting Tourism Demand: The Role of Seasonality," Tourism Economics, , vol. 18(5), pages 915-930, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:18:y:2012:i:5:p:915-930
    DOI: 10.5367/te.2012.0153
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paulo Rodrigues & Denise Osborn, 1999. "Performance of seasonal unit root tests for monthly data," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(8), pages 985-1004.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Anna Serena Vergori, 2017. "Patterns of seasonality and tourism demand forecasting," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(5), pages 1011-1027, August.
    2. Rosselló, Jaume & Sansó, Andreu, 2017. "Yearly, monthly and weekly seasonality of tourism demand: A decomposition analysis," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 379-389.
    3. Zamparini, Luca & Vergori, Anna Serena, 2021. "Sustainable mobility at tourist destinations: The relevance of habits and the role of policies," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    4. Frédéric Dobruszkes & Jean-Michel Decroly & Pere Suau-Sanchez, 2022. "The monthly rhythms of aviation: A global analysis of passenger air service seasonality," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/341140, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    5. Liang Zhu & Christine Lim & Wenjun Xie & Yuan Wu, 2017. "Analysis of tourism demand serial dependence structure for forecasting," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(7), pages 1419-1436, November.
    6. Keerti Manisha & Inderpal Singh, 2024. "Forecasting of Indian and foreign tourist arrivals to Himachal Pradesh using Decomposition, Box–Jenkins, and Holt–Winters exponential smoothing methods," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 879-909, September.
    7. Cengiz Koç & Yıldırım Bayazıt & Selami Yurdan Özgül, 2023. "Impact of tourists on urban water needs in Marmaris, Türkiye," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(8), pages 8837-8855, August.
    8. Jorge Ridderstaat & Peter Nijkamp, 2013. "Measuring Pattern, Amplitude and Timing Differences between Monetary and Non-Monetary Seasonal Factors of Tourism - the Case of Aruba," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-116/VIII, Tinbergen Institute, revised 05 Sep 2013.

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