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Research Note: Tourism Demand Forecasting with SARIMA Models – the Case of South Tyrol

Author

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  • Juan Gabriel Brida

    (Competence Centre in Tourism Management and Tourism Economics (TOMTE), School of Economics and Management, Free University of Bolzano, Piazzetta dell'Università , 39031 Brunico (BZ), Italy)

  • Wiston Adrián Risso

    (School of Economics and Management, Free University of Bolzano, Italy)

Abstract

In this study, the performance of SARIMA models is explored in the context of tourism demand forecasting by using monthly time series of the overnight stays in South Tyrol (Italy) from January 1950 to December 2005. The forecasting performance is assessed using data for January 2006 to December 2008, and the authors find evidence that the SARIMA(2,1,2)(0,1,1)–ARCH(1) outperform the alternative models.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Gabriel Brida & Wiston Adrián Risso, 2011. "Research Note: Tourism Demand Forecasting with SARIMA Models – the Case of South Tyrol," Tourism Economics, , vol. 17(1), pages 209-221, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:17:y:2011:i:1:p:209-221
    DOI: 10.5367/te.2011.0030
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chang, Chia-Lin & Sriboonchitta, Songsak & Wiboonpongse, Aree, 2009. "Modelling and forecasting tourism from East Asia to Thailand under temporal and spatial aggregation," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 79(5), pages 1730-1744.
    2. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
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    2. Ioannis Chatziantoniou & Stavros Degiannakis & Bruno Eeckels & George Filis, 2016. "Forecasting tourist arrivals using origin country macroeconomics," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(27), pages 2571-2585, June.
    3. Hassani, Hossein & Silva, Emmanuel Sirimal & Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Filis, George & Gupta, Rangan, 2017. "Forecasting accuracy evaluation of tourist arrivals," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 112-127.
    4. Marcos à lvarez-Díaz & Manuel González-Gómez & María Soledad Otero-Giráldez, 2019. "Estimating the economic impact of a political conflict on tourism: The case of the Catalan separatist challenge," Tourism Economics, , vol. 25(1), pages 34-50, February.
    5. Jorge V Pérez-Rodríguez & María Santana-Gallego, 2020. "Modelling tourism receipts and associated risks, using long-range dependence models," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(1), pages 70-96, February.
    6. Marcos Álvarez-Díaz & Manuel González-Gómez & María Soledad Otero-Giráldez, 2018. "Forecasting International Tourism Demand Using a Non-Linear Autoregressive Neural Network and Genetic Programming," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 1(1), pages 1-17, September.

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