IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/smppub/v7y2018i2p212-239.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exchange Rate Dynamics, Endogenous Risk Premium and the Balance Sheet Effect: An Effective Demand Model

Author

Listed:
  • Moumita Basu
  • Jonaki Sengupta
  • Ranjanendra Narayan Nag

Abstract

This article describes a macroeconomic framework for analysing the interaction between output, domestic interest rate and exchange rate in the presence of the endogenous risk premium and balance sheet effect of exchange rate depreciation on investment demand. Output is demand determined. There are three assets: money, domestic bonds and foreign bonds. Domestic bonds and foreign bonds are not perfect substitutes due to the presence of risk premium. The endogenous risk premium depends on certain macroeconomic fundamentals, namely budget deficit and current account balance. Using this framework, we will examine implications of monetary policy, fiscal policy, tariff liberalization and global interest rate hike for exchange rate dynamics and output. The balance sheet effect and the risk premium together explain how an expansionary fiscal policy may generate recession, while tariff liberalization may produce favourable macroeconomic outcomes. Moreover, the model shows that an increase in world interest rate may have contractionary effect on the domestic output level due to the presence of the balance sheet effect of exchange rate depreciation. JEL Classification: E27, E63, F13, F32

Suggested Citation

  • Moumita Basu & Jonaki Sengupta & Ranjanendra Narayan Nag, 2018. "Exchange Rate Dynamics, Endogenous Risk Premium and the Balance Sheet Effect: An Effective Demand Model," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 7(2), pages 212-239, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:smppub:v:7:y:2018:i:2:p:212-239
    DOI: 10.1177/2277978718795775
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/2277978718795775
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/2277978718795775?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Helpman,Elhanan & Sadka,Efraim (ed.), 2003. "Economic Policy in the International Economy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521815192, October.
    2. Paul Krugman, 1999. "Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Crises," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 6(4), pages 459-472, November.
    3. Olivier Blanchard & Francesco Giavazzi & Filipa Sa, 2005. "International Investors, the U.S. Current Account, and the Dollar," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 36(1), pages 1-66.
    4. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Edwards, Sebastián, 1990. "La macroeconomía del populismo en la América Latina," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 57(225), pages 121-162, enero-mar.
    5. Rajan, Ramkishen S. & Shen, Chung-Hua, 2006. "Why Are Crisis-Induced Devaluations Contractionary? Exploring Alternative Hypotheses," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 21, pages 526-550.
    6. Charles Engel, 2016. "Exchange Rates, Interest Rates, and the Risk Premium," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(2), pages 436-474, February.
    7. Rajat Acharyya & Sugata Marjit (ed.), 2014. "Trade, Globalization and Development," Springer Books, Springer, edition 127, number 978-81-322-1151-8, June.
    8. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Edwards, Sebastian, 1990. "Macroeconomic populism," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 247-277, April.
    9. Ying Wu, 2015. "The Open-Economy Trilemma in China: Monetary and Exchange-Rate Policy Interaction under Financial Repression," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 1-24, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    2. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.
    3. Maximiliano Marzetti & Rok Spruk, 2023. "Long-Term Economic Effects of Populist Legal Reforms: Evidence from Argentina," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 65(1), pages 60-95, March.
    4. Michaud, Amanda & Rothert, Jacek, 2018. "Redistributive fiscal policies and business cycles in emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 123-133.
    5. Cossu Elena, 2023. "Clustering and Analysing Relevant Policy Dimensions of Populist, Left-Wing, Centrist, and Right-Wing Parties across Europe," Central European Journal of Public Policy, Sciendo, vol. 17(1), pages 41-54, June.
    6. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Shang-Jin Wei, 2004. "Managing Macroeconomic Crises," NBER Working Papers 10907, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Mauricio I. Dussauge-Laguna, 2022. "The promises and perils of populism for democratic policymaking: the case of Mexico," Policy Sciences, Springer;Society of Policy Sciences, vol. 55(4), pages 777-803, December.
    8. Campos, Luciano & Casas, Agustín, 2021. "Rara Avis: Latin American populism in the 21st century," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    9. Ramkishen S. Rajan, 2007. "Managing new-style currency crises: the swan diagram approach revisited," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(5), pages 583-606.
    10. Nicolás Cachanosky & Alexandre Padilla, 2020. "A panel data analysis of Latin American populism," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 329-343, September.
    11. Ali, Amjad & Ur Rehman, Hafeez, 2015. "Macroeconomic Instability and Its Impact on Gross Domestic Product: An Empirical Analysis of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 71037, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Alan de Bromhead & Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke, 2024. "Should history change the way we think about populism?," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 77(3), pages 1086-1109, August.
    13. Nina Nikolova & Shteryo Nozharov, 2020. "Shadow Economy and Populism – Risk and Uncertainty Factors for Establishing Low-Carbon Economy of Balkan Countries (Case Study for Bulgaria)," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 3, pages 121-144.
    14. Daniel L. Bennett & Christopher Boudreaux & Boris Nikolaev, 2023. "Populist discourse and entrepreneurship: The role of political ideology and institutions," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 54(1), pages 151-181, February.
    15. Mustafa Ismihan & Kivilcim Metin-Ozcan & Aysit Tansel, 2002. "Macroeconomic Instability, Capital Accumulation and Growth: The Case of Turkey 1963-1999," Working Papers 0209, Economic Research Forum, revised 21 Mar 2002.
    16. Strobl, Martin & Sáenz de Viteri, Andrea & Rode, Martin & Bjørnskov, Christian, 2023. "Populism and inequality: Does reality match the populist rhetoric?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 207(C), pages 1-17.
    17. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2017. "Asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes: a survey," BIS Working Papers 676, Bank for International Settlements.
    18. Emilio Ocampo, 2023. "Dollarization as an Effective Commitment Device: The Case of Argentina," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 848, Universidad del CEMA.
    19. Manuel Fernández & Gabriela Serrano, 2022. "New Perspectives on Inequality in Latin America," Documentos CEDE 20295, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    20. Fedotenkov, Igor & Idrisov, Georgy, 2021. "A supply-demand model of public sector size," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(2).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Risk premium; exchange rate dynamics; balance sheet effect; effective demand; output;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:smppub:v:7:y:2018:i:2:p:212-239. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.