IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bil/wpaper/0205.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Macroeconomic Instability, Capital Accumulation and Growth : The Case of Turkey 1963-1999

Author

Listed:
  • Mustafa Ismihan
  • Aysit Tansel
  • Kivilcim Metin-Ozcan

Abstract

This study investigates the empirical relationships between macroeconomic instability, capital accumulation and growth in Turkey over the period 1963-1999. We use recent time series econometric techniques, such as cointegration and impulse response analysis, to analyze empirical relationships between the variables of interest. The results of this paper suggest that the chronic and increasing macroeconomic instability of the Turkish economy has seriously affected the capital formation and hence growth. Furthermore, chronic macroeconomic instability seems to become a serious impediment to the public investment, especially its infrastructural component, and shattered or, even reversed the complementarity between public and private investment in the long-run. Therefore, Turkish experience has shown that macroeconomic instability not only hinders economic growth but it could also reverse the complementarity between public and private investment in the long-run.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Mustafa Ismihan & Aysit Tansel & Kivilcim Metin-Ozcan, 2002. "Macroeconomic Instability, Capital Accumulation and Growth : The Case of Turkey 1963-1999," Working Papers 0205, Department of Economics, Bilkent University.
    • Handle: RePEc:bil:wpaper:0205
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bilkent.edu.tr/~economics/papers/02-05%20DP%20Kivilcim%20Metin.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Perotti, Roberto, 1996. "Fiscal Consolidation in Europe: Composition Matters," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 105-110, May.
    2. Francisco José Veiga, 2000. "Delays of Inflation Stabilizations," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(3), pages 275-295, November.
    3. Isabel Argimon & Jose Gonzalez-Paramo & Jose Roldan, 1997. "Evidence of public spending crowding-out from a panel of OECD countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(8), pages 1001-1010.
    4. Erin Yeldan & Kivilcim Metin-…zcan & Ebru Voyvoda, 1999. "Dynamics of Macroeconomic Adjustment in a Globalized Developing Economy : Growth, Accumulation and Distribution, Turkey 1969-1998," Working Papers 9905, Department of Economics, Bilkent University.
    5. Anne O. Krueger, 1974. "Appendices and Index to "Foreign Trade Regimes and Economic Development: Turkey"," NBER Chapters, in: Foreign Trade Regimes and Economic Development: Turkey, pages 271-339, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Antonio Estache, 1994. "World Development Report: Infrastructure for Development," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/44144, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    7. Aschauer, David Alan, 1989. "Is public expenditure productive?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 177-200, March.
    8. Anne O. Krueger, 1974. "Foreign Trade Regimes and Economic Development: Turkey," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number krue74-1.
    9. Katarina Juselius & Ronald MacDonald, 2000. "International Parity Relationships between Germany and the United States: A Joint Modelling Approach," Discussion Papers 00-10, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    10. Roberto Perotti, 1999. "Fiscal Policy in Good Times and Bad," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(4), pages 1399-1436.
    11. Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry & Bent Nielsen, 1998. "Inference in Cointegrating Models: UK M1 Revisited," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 533-572, December.
    12. Metin, Kivilcim, 1998. "The Relationship between Inflation and the Budget Deficit in Turkey," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 412-422, October.
    13. Ozatay, Fatih, 1997. "Sustainability of fiscal deficits, monetary policy, and inflation stabilization: The case of Turkey," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 661-681, December.
    14. Neil R. Ericsson & John S. Irons & Ralph W. Tryon, 2001. "Output and inflation in the long run," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 241-253.
    15. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 103-126, October.
    16. Ahmed, Shaghil & Rogers, John H., 2000. "Inflation and the great ratios: Long term evidence from the U.S," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 3-35, February.
    17. Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 1999. "Political economics and macroeconomic policy," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 22, pages 1397-1482, Elsevier.
    18. Fischer, Stanley, 1993. "The role of macroeconomic factors in growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 485-512, December.
    19. Jan-Egbert Sturm & Gerard H. Kuper & Jakob Haan, 1998. "Modelling Government Investment and Economic Growth on a Macro Level: A Review," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Steven Brakman & Hans Ees & Simon K. Kuipers (ed.), Market Behaviour and Macroeconomic Modelling, chapter 14, pages 359-406, Palgrave Macmillan.
    20. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-472, August.
    21. Easterly, William & Rebelo, Sergio, 1993. "Fiscal policy and economic growth: An empirical investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 417-458, December.
    22. Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. (ed.), 1991. "Long-Run Economic Relationships: Readings in Cointegration," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283393.
    23. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    24. repec:bla:jecsur:v:12:y:1998:i:5:p:533-72 is not listed on IDEAS
    25. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Edwards, Sebastián, 1990. "La macroeconomía del populismo en la América Latina," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 57(225), pages 121-162, enero-mar.
    26. Boratav, Korkut & Turel, Oktar & Yeldan, Erinc, 1996. "Dilemmas of structural adjustment and environmental policies under instability: Post-1980 Turkey," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 373-393, February.
    27. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    28. Katarina Juselius, 2001. "Unit Roots and the Demand for Cigarettes in Turkey: Pitfalls and Possibilities," Discussion Papers 01-02, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    29. Lutkepohl, Helmut & Reimers, Hans-Eggert, 1992. "Impulse response analysis of cointegrated systems," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 53-78, January.
    30. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
    31. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti & José Tavares, 1998. "The Political Economy of Fiscal Adjustments," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1), pages 197-266.
    32. M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron P. Smith, 1998. "Structural Analysis of Cointegrating VARs," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 471-505, December.
    33. Mario I. Blejer & Mohsin S. Khan, 1984. "Government Policy and Private Investment in Developing Countries (Politique des pouvoirs publics et investissement privé dans les pays en développement) (Política estatal e inversión privada en lo," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 31(2), pages 379-403, June.
    34. Aschauer, David Alan, 1989. "Does public capital crowd out private capital?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 171-188, September.
    35. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    36. Miguel D. Ramirez, 1998. "Does Public Investment Enhance Productivity Growth in Mexico? A Cointegration Analysis," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 24(1), pages 63-82, Winter.
    37. Bleaney, Michael F., 1996. "Macroeconomic stability, investment and growth in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 461-477, March.
    38. Khalifa Ghali, 1998. "Public investment and private capital formation in a vector error-correction model of growth," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(6), pages 837-844.
    39. Yeldan, A. Erinc, 1997. "Financial liberalization and fiscal repression in Turkey: Policy analysis in a CGE model with financial markets," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 79-117, February.
    40. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Edwards, Sebastian, 1990. "Macroeconomic populism," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 247-277, April.
    41. Fatih Özatay, 2000. "The 1994 currency crisis in Turkey," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 327-352.
    42. David F. Hendry & Katarina Juselius, 2001. "Explaining Cointegration Analysis: Part II," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 75-120.
    43. Kormendi, Roger C. & Meguire, Philip G., 1985. "Macroeconomic determinants of growth: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 141-163, September.
    44. Jonathan Temple, 1999. "The New Growth Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 112-156, March.
    45. Blanca Sanchez-Robles, 1998. "Macroeconomic stability and economic growth: the case of Spain," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(9), pages 587-591.
    46. Rodrik, Dani, 1995. "Political economy of trade policy," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 28, pages 1457-1494, Elsevier.
    47. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    48. James G. MacKinnon, 1990. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests," Working Paper 1227, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    49. Nader Nazmi & Miguel D. Ramirez, 1997. "Public And Private Investment And Economic Growth In Mexico," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 15(1), pages 65-75, January.
    50. Alfredo M. Pereira, 2000. "Is All Public Capital Created Equal?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(3), pages 513-518, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Secil Pacaci Elitok & Al Campbell, 2008. "The Balance of Payments as a Constraint on Turkeys Growth: 1960-2004," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2008_13, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
    2. ISLAM Mohammad Saiful & PATTAK Dulal Chandra, 2017. "The Dimensions Affecting Investment Resulting Stabilized Economic Growth In Bangladesh: Perception Analysis Of Investors And Bankers," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 12(1), pages 85-94, April.
    3. Oukhallou, Youssef, 2016. "Analyzing economic growth: what role for public investment?," MPRA Paper 69772, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Göktaylar, Yavuz, 2011. "The rise of independent administrative authorities in Turkey: A close look on sources, successes and challenges of this new institutional transformation," 22nd European Regional ITS Conference, Budapest 2011: Innovative ICT Applications - Emerging Regulatory, Economic and Policy Issues 52154, International Telecommunications Society (ITS).
    5. Demir, Firat, 2006. "Volatility of short term capital flows and socio-political instability in Argentina, Mexico and Turkey," MPRA Paper 1943, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Unal Zenginobuz & Sumru Altug, 2009. "What has been the Role of Investment in Turkey's Growth Performance?," Working Papers 2009/02, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Diego Martinez-Lopez, 2006. "Linking Public Investment to Private Investment. The Case of Spanish Regions," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 411-423.
    2. MacDonald, Ronald & Marsh, Ian W., 2004. "Currency spillovers and tri-polarity: a simultaneous model of the US dollar, German mark and Japanese yen," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 99-111, February.
    3. Muhammad Javid, 2019. "Public and Private Infrastructure Investment and Economic Growth in Pakistan: An Aggregate and Disaggregate Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-22, June.
    4. Ali, Amjad & Ur Rehman, Hafeez, 2015. "Macroeconomic Instability and Its Impact on Gross Domestic Product: An Empirical Analysis of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 71037, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Zou, Gao Lu, 2012. "The long-term relationships among China's energy consumption sources and adjustments to its renewable energy policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 456-467.
    6. Norman Gemmell, 2001. "Fiscal Policy in a Growth Framework," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2001-84, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    7. Marie-Ange VEGANZONES-VAROUDAKIS, 2000. "Infrastructures, investissement et croissance : un bilan de dix années de recherches," Working Papers 200007, CERDI.
    8. Torrisi, Gianpiero, 2009. "Public infrastructure: definition, classification and measurement issues," MPRA Paper 12990, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Ibrar Hussain & Jawad Hussain & Arshad Ali & Shabir Ahmad, 2021. "A Dynamic Analysis of the Impact of Fiscal Adjustment on Economic Growth: Evidence From Pakistan," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(2), pages 21582440211, June.
    10. Morgan, C. Wyn & McCorriston, Steve, 2005. "Market Power and Relative Price Adjustment: Evidence from the UK," 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark 24485, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    11. Lutfi Erden & Randall G. Holcombe, 2006. "The Linkage Between Public and Private Investment: A Co-integration Analysis of a Panel of Developing Countries," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 479-492, Summer.
    12. H. Ahmed & SM. Miller, 2000. "Crowding‐out and crowding‐in effects of the components of government expenditure," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 18(1), pages 124-133, January.
    13. Carlos Mulas-Granados, 2003. "The Trade-Off between Growth & Equality and the Economic Impact of Alternative Fiscal Adjustment Strategies in the EU," European Economy Group Working Papers 20, European Economy Group.
    14. Christophe Kamps, 2005. "The Dynamic Effects of Public Capital: VAR Evidence for 22 OECD Countries," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 12(4), pages 533-558, August.
    15. Torrisi, Gianpiero, 2009. "Infrastructures and economic performance: a critical comparison across four approaches," MPRA Paper 18688, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Stephen S. Everhart & Mariusz A. Sumlinski, 2001. "Trends in Private Investment in Developing Countries : Statistics for 1970-2000 and the Impact on Private Investment of Corruption and the Quality of Public Investment," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13989.
    17. Neil R. Ericsson & James G. MacKinnon, 2002. "Distributions of error correction tests for cointegration," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(2), pages 285-318, June.
    18. Dierk HERZER & Felicitas NOWAK‐LEHMANN D. & Boriss SILIVERSTOVS, 2006. "Export‐Led Growth In Chile: Assessing The Role Of Export Composition In Productivity Growth," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 44(3), pages 306-328, September.
    19. Levent KORAP, 2008. "Exchange Rate Determination Of Tl/Us$:A Co-Integration Approach," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 7(1), pages 24-50, May.
    20. Dierk Herzer & Stephan Klasen & Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann D., 2006. "In search of FDI-led growth in developing countries," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 150, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Public investment; Private investment; Complementarity; Macroeconomic Instability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bil:wpaper:0205. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: C Pakel (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/debiltr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.