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Risk assessment of UK biofuel developments within the rapidly evolving energy and transport sectors

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  • Geoffrey P Hammond
  • Hayley R Howard
  • Andrew Tuck

Abstract

A range of major risks associated with the production and use of biofuels in the rapidly changing United Kingdom (UK) energy and transport sectors have been identified and quantified. This was achieved with the aid of various stakeholder groups (academic researchers; industrialists; and a concatenated group of policy makers together with ‘green’ and international development groups), who completed an online internet questionnaire. Each stakeholder ranked 15 potential risks associated with the UK development and use of liquid biofuels according to their perceived ‘severity of impact’ and ‘likelihood of occurrence’ using a three-point scale. This data was then used to perform a ranking of the risks by multiplying scores for impact and occurrence. There was some variation between the different stakeholder groups, but the similar risks were ranked highly by each group. The overall ranking identified the main risks as being a lack of investor confidence in biofuel developments (the highest score); energy or fuel security issues; negative public perception of biofuels (equal second highest); increased food prices; high barriers to entry into the fuel market; and misdirected agricultural expansion or land use (equal fifth highest). Comments by the expert respondents also provide a qualitative evaluation of the present state of UK biofuel developments. The present trial illustrates the potential of using risk issues appraisal and ranking to evaluate developing risks to the UK biofuels landscape. Clearly such an exercise would need to be carried out periodically if it were to maintain its value to the biofuel-related industrial sector and other stakeholders, including policy makers.

Suggested Citation

  • Geoffrey P Hammond & Hayley R Howard & Andrew Tuck, 2012. "Risk assessment of UK biofuel developments within the rapidly evolving energy and transport sectors," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 226(5), pages 526-548, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:risrel:v:226:y:2012:i:5:p:526-548
    DOI: 10.1177/1748006X12448147
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Geoffrey P. Hammond, 2004. "Engineering Sustainability: Thermodynamics, Energy Systems and the Environment," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Adrian Winnett (ed.), Towards an Environment Research Agenda, chapter 8, pages 175-210, Palgrave Macmillan.
    2. Searchinger, Timothy & Heimlich, Ralph & Houghton, R. A. & Dong, Fengxia & Elobeid, Amani & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Tokgoz, Simla & Hayes, Dermot J. & Yu, Hun-Hsiang, 2008. "Use of U.S. Croplands for Biofuels Increases Greenhouse Gases Through Emissions from Land-Use Change," Staff General Research Papers Archive 12881, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    3. Mitchell, Donald, 2008. "A note on rising food prices," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4682, The World Bank.
    4. Hammond, G.P. & Kallu, S. & McManus, M.C., 2008. "Development of biofuels for the UK automotive market," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 85(6), pages 506-515, June.
    5. World Commission on Environment and Development,, 1987. "Our Common Future," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780192820808.
    6. Cranston, G.R. & Hammond, G.P., 2010. "North and south: Regional footprints on the transition pathway towards a low carbon, global economy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(9), pages 2945-2951, September.
    7. Göran Broman & John Holmberg & Karl-Henrik Robört, 2000. "Simplicity Without Reduction: Thinking Upstream Towards the Sustainable Society," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 30(3), pages 13-25, June.
    8. Demirbas, Ayhan, 2009. "Political, economic and environmental impacts of biofuels: A review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(Supplemen), pages 108-117, November.
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    10. Adams, P.W. & Hammond, G.P. & McManus, M.C. & Mezzullo, W.G., 2011. "Barriers to and drivers for UK bioenergy development," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 1217-1227, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Miller, Harvey J., 2013. "Beyond sharing: cultivating cooperative transportation systems through geographic information science," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 296-308.

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