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Oracles

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  • Peter T Leeson

Abstract

This article uses rational choice theory to analyze oracles: media for divining answers to questions about the unknown. I develop a simple theory of oracles with rational agents. My theory explains oracles as institutional solutions to “low-grade†interpersonal conflicts—petty grievances and frustrations resulting from perceptions or feelings of personal offense—that government is unable to resolve. Oracles secure correlated equilibrium in situations where, without them, individuals would be stuck in a suboptimal world of simple mixed-strategy equilibrium. By randomizing strategies about how to behave in situations of low-grade conflict and coordinating individuals’ choices across that randomization, oracles resolve low-grade conflict efficiently. To investigate my theory I consider a society of persons who rely exclusively on oracles to decide how to behave in situations of low-grade conflict: the Azande of Africa. Using the equivalent of a “Magic 8 Ball†to resolve such conflict improves Zande welfare.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter T Leeson, 2014. "Oracles," Rationality and Society, , vol. 26(2), pages 141-169, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:ratsoc:v:26:y:2014:i:2:p:141-169
    DOI: 10.1177/1043463113512997
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peter Leeson, 2013. "Gypsy law," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 155(3), pages 273-292, June.
    2. Cass, David & Shell, Karl, 1983. "Do Sunspots Matter?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 193-227, April.
    3. Peter T. Leeson, 2008. "Social Distance and Self-Enforcing Exchange," The Journal of Legal Studies, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(1), pages 161-188, January.
    4. Peter T. Leeson, 2007. "An-arrgh-chy: The Law and Economics of Pirate Organization," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(6), pages 1049-1094, December.
    5. Leeson, Peter T. & Coyne, Christopher J., 2012. "Sassywood," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 608-620.
    6. Peter T. Leeson, 2007. "Trading with Bandits," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 50(2), pages 303-321.
    7. Stigler, George J, 1992. "Law or Economics?," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 35(2), pages 455-468, October.
    8. repec:dau:papers:123456789/181 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Peter T. Leeson, 2009. "The Laws of Lawlessness," The Journal of Legal Studies, University of Chicago Press, vol. 38(2), pages 471-503, June.
    10. Peter T. Leeson, 2012. "Ordeals," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 55(3), pages 691-714.
    11. Peter T. Leeson, 2013. "Vermin Trials," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(3), pages 811-836.
    12. Peter Leeson, 2009. "The calculus of piratical consent: the myth of the myth of social contract," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 139(3), pages 443-459, June.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Vladimir Vladimirovich Maltsev, 2020. "Economics of the Sacramental Bread Ordeal in the Russian Princedoms Period," Journal of Economics, Management and Religion (JEMAR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 1(02), pages 1-16, December.
    2. Gershman, Boris, 2015. "The economic origins of the evil eye belief," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 119-144.
    3. Manvir Singh & Pascal Boyer & Leeson, Peter T & Mckay Ryan & Bentall, Richard P & Sarah Peacey & Ruth Mace & Schimmelpfennig, Robin & Muthukrishna, Michael, 2021. "Magic, explanations, and evil: the origins and design of witches and sorcerers," Post-Print hal-03256601, HAL.
    4. Palagashvili,Liya & Piano,Ennio & Skarbek,David, 2017. "The Decline and Rise of Institutions," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781316649176, January.
    5. Kimbrough, Erik O. & Rubin, Jared & Sheremeta, Roman M. & Shields, Timothy W., 2015. "Commitment problems in conflict resolution," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 33-45.
    6. Gershman, Boris, 2016. "Witchcraft beliefs and the erosion of social capital: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa and beyond," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 182-208.
    7. Peter T. Leeson & Paola A. Suarez, 2015. "Superstition and Self-Governance," Advances in Austrian Economics, in: New Thinking in Austrian Political Economy, volume 19, pages 47-66, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    8. Escalante, Edwar E. & March, Raymond J., 2020. "Fighting on Christmas: brawling as self-governance in rural Peru," Journal of Institutional Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(3), pages 355-368, June.
    9. Peter T. Leeson & Jacob W. Russ, 2018. "Witch Trials," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(613), pages 2066-2105, August.
    10. Gershman, Boris, 2020. "Witchcraft beliefs as a cultural legacy of the Atlantic slave trade: Evidence from two continents," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).

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