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How Well Can Physicians Estimate Mortality in a Medical Intensive Care Unit?

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  • Donna Katzman McClish
  • Stephen H. Powell

Abstract

The accuracies of physicians' predictions of mortality for 523 patients in a medical intensive care unit were compared with estimates derived from a logistic model. The model utilized a popular severity-of-illness measure, the APACHE II. Accuracy was assessed through its components resolution (discrimination) and calibration. Physicians could better discriminate survivors from nonsurvivors, as measured by the area under the receiver operating char acteristic curve (0.89 for physicians vs 0.83 for APACHE II model, p

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  • Donna Katzman McClish & Stephen H. Powell, 1989. "How Well Can Physicians Estimate Mortality in a Medical Intensive Care Unit?," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 9(2), pages 125-132, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:medema:v:9:y:1989:i:2:p:125-132
    DOI: 10.1177/0272989X8900900207
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    Cited by:

    1. Sonia Pérez-Fernández & Pablo Martínez-Camblor & Peter Filzmoser & Norberto Corral, 2021. "Visualizing the decision rules behind the ROC curves: understanding the classification process," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 105(1), pages 135-161, March.
    2. Anqiang Huang & Han Qiao & Shouyang Wang & John Liu, 2016. "Improving Forecasting Performance by Exploiting Expert Knowledge: Evidence from Guangzhou Port," International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(02), pages 387-401, March.
    3. Seifert, Matthias & Hadida, Allègre L., 2013. "On the relative importance of linear model and human judge(s) in combined forecasting," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 24-36.
    4. Whitecotton, Stacey M. & Sanders, D. Elaine & Norris, Kathleen B., 1998. "Improving Predictive Accuracy with a Combination of Human Intuition and Mechanical Decision Aids," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 325-348, December.
    5. Margaret A Coulter Smith & Pam Smith & Rosemary Crow, 2014. "A critical review: a combined conceptual framework of severity of illness and clinical judgement for analysing diagnostic judgements in critical illness," Journal of Clinical Nursing, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(5-6), pages 784-798, March.

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