IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/medema/v17y1997i2p136-141.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Primer on Medical Decision Analysis: Part 3—Estimating Probabilities and Utilities

Author

Listed:
  • Gary Naglie
  • Murray D. Krahn
  • David Naimark
  • Donald A. Redelmeier
  • Allan S. Detsky

Abstract

This paper describes how to estimate probabilities and outcome values for decision trees. Probabilities are usually derived from published studies, but occasionally are derived from existing databases, primary data collection, or expert judgment. Outcome values represent quantitative estimates of the desirability of the outcome states, and are often expressed as utility values between 0 and 1. Utility values for different health states can be derived from the published literature, from direct measurement in appropriate subjects, or from expert opinion. Methods for assigning utilities to complex outcome states are described, and the concept of quality-adjusted life years is introduced. Key words: decision analysis; expected value; utility; sensitivity analysis; decision trees; probability. (Med Decis Making 1997;17:136-141)

Suggested Citation

  • Gary Naglie & Murray D. Krahn & David Naimark & Donald A. Redelmeier & Allan S. Detsky, 1997. "Primer on Medical Decision Analysis: Part 3—Estimating Probabilities and Utilities," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 17(2), pages 136-141, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:medema:v:17:y:1997:i:2:p:136-141
    DOI: 10.1177/0272989X9701700203
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0272989X9701700203
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/0272989X9701700203?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marco Bobbio & Robert Detrano & Adrian H. Shandling & Myrvin H. Ellestad & Jayne Clark & Oleh Brezden & Ana Abecia & Diego Martinez-Caro, 1992. "Clinical Assessment of the Probability of Coronary Artery Disease," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 12(3), pages 197-203, August.
    2. Murray D. Krahn & Gary Naglie & David Naimark & Donald A. Redelmeier & Allan S. Detsky, 1997. "Primer on Medical Decision Analysis: Part 4-Analyzing the Model and Interpreting the Results," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 17(2), pages 142-151, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Juhee Lee & Peter F. Thall & Bora Lim & Pavlos Msaouel, 2022. "Utility‐based Bayesian personalized treatment selection for advanced breast cancer," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 71(5), pages 1605-1622, November.
    2. Douglas K. Owens, 2002. "Analytic Tools for Public Health Decision Making," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 22(1_suppl), pages 3-10, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Donald A. Redelmeier & Allan S. Detsky & Murray D. Krahn & David Naimark & Gary Naglie, 1997. "Guidelines for Verbal Presentations of Medical Decision Analyses," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 17(2), pages 228-230, April.
    2. Kenneth J. Smith & Amber E. Barnato & Mark S. Roberts, 2006. "Teaching Medical Decision Modeling: A Qualitative Description of Student Errors and Curriculum Responses," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 26(6), pages 583-588, November.
    3. Juhee Lee & Peter F. Thall & Bora Lim & Pavlos Msaouel, 2022. "Utility‐based Bayesian personalized treatment selection for advanced breast cancer," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 71(5), pages 1605-1622, November.
    4. Douglas K. Owens, 2002. "Analytic Tools for Public Health Decision Making," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 22(1_suppl), pages 3-10, September.
    5. Allan S. Detsky & Gary Naglie & Murray D. Krahn & David Naimark & Donald A. Redelmeier, 1997. "Primer on Medical Decision Analysis: Part 1—Getting Started," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 17(2), pages 123-125, April.
    6. Allan S. Detsky & Gary Naglie & Murray D. Krahn & Donald A. Redelmeier & David Naimark, 1997. "Primer on Medical Decision Analysis: Part 2—Building a Tree," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 17(2), pages 126-135, April.
    7. Tori Sutherland & Janelle Downing & Suellen Miller & David M Bishai & Elizabeth Butrick & Mohamed M F Fathalla & Mohammed Mourad-Youssif & Oladosu Ojengbede & David Nsima & James G Kahn, 2013. "Use of the Non-Pneumatic Anti-Shock Garment (NASG) for Life-Threatening Obstetric Hemorrhage: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis in Egypt and Nigeria," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(4), pages 1-8, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:medema:v:17:y:1997:i:2:p:136-141. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.