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Primer on Medical Decision Analysis: Part 3—Estimating Probabilities and Utilities

Author

Listed:
  • Gary Naglie
  • Murray D. Krahn
  • David Naimark
  • Donald A. Redelmeier
  • Allan S. Detsky

Abstract

This paper describes how to estimate probabilities and outcome values for decision trees. Probabilities are usually derived from published studies, but occasionally are derived from existing databases, primary data collection, or expert judgment. Outcome values represent quantitative estimates of the desirability of the outcome states, and are often expressed as utility values between 0 and 1. Utility values for different health states can be derived from the published literature, from direct measurement in appropriate subjects, or from expert opinion. Methods for assigning utilities to complex outcome states are described, and the concept of quality-adjusted life years is introduced. Key words: decision analysis; expected value; utility; sensitivity analysis; decision trees; probability. (Med Decis Making 1997;17:136-141)

Suggested Citation

  • Gary Naglie & Murray D. Krahn & David Naimark & Donald A. Redelmeier & Allan S. Detsky, 1997. "Primer on Medical Decision Analysis: Part 3—Estimating Probabilities and Utilities," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 17(2), pages 136-141, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:medema:v:17:y:1997:i:2:p:136-141
    DOI: 10.1177/0272989X9701700203
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Marco Bobbio & Robert Detrano & Adrian H. Shandling & Myrvin H. Ellestad & Jayne Clark & Oleh Brezden & Ana Abecia & Diego Martinez-Caro, 1992. "Clinical Assessment of the Probability of Coronary Artery Disease," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 12(3), pages 197-203, August.
    2. Murray D. Krahn & Gary Naglie & David Naimark & Donald A. Redelmeier & Allan S. Detsky, 1997. "Primer on Medical Decision Analysis: Part 4-Analyzing the Model and Interpreting the Results," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 17(2), pages 142-151, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Juhee Lee & Peter F. Thall & Bora Lim & Pavlos Msaouel, 2022. "Utility‐based Bayesian personalized treatment selection for advanced breast cancer," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 71(5), pages 1605-1622, November.
    2. Douglas K. Owens, 2002. "Analytic Tools for Public Health Decision Making," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 22(1_suppl), pages 3-10, September.

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