IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/mareco/v12y2018i3p308-332.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Assessment of India’s Fiscal and External Sector Vulnerability: A Balance Sheet Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Krishanu Pradhan

Abstract

The article is an attempt to assess India’s fiscal and external sector vulnerability in the context of the deterioration in major macroeconomic indicators in recent years. The balance sheet approach (BSA) developed mainly by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is applied to analyse episodes of major fiscal, financial and external payment crises in developing countries between the late 1990s to early 2000. The present work assesses the vulnerability in India’s fiscal and external sectors by descriptive and comparative analyses of relevant indicators and developing a composite vulnerability index (CVI) consisting of the indicators under study. Fiscal or external sector vulnerability can also be assessed by how easily or smoothly a government or a nation can finance its budgetary deficit or rollover of debt or the external sector funding needs. The method of financing and management of debt-related liabilities become important in this context. This may get reflected in currency composition, maturity pattern and ownership pattern of liabilities. The CVI score and favourable currency composition, maturity pattern and ownership pattern of liabilities largely helped India reduce both fiscal and external sector liabilities significantly in recent years. JEL Classification: E60, F34, H63

Suggested Citation

  • Krishanu Pradhan, 2018. "Assessment of India’s Fiscal and External Sector Vulnerability: A Balance Sheet Approach," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 12(3), pages 308-332, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:mareco:v:12:y:2018:i:3:p:308-332
    DOI: 10.1177/0973801018768988
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0973801018768988
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/0973801018768988?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bachellerie, A. & Couillault, B., 2005. "Public debt sustainability and crises in emerging market countries: a presentation of the concepts and diagnostic tools," Financial Stability Review, Banque de France, issue 6, pages 63-80, June.
    2. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann & Ugo Panizza, 2007. "Currency Mismatches, Debt Intolerance, and the Original Sin: Why They Are Not the Same and Why It Matters," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices, and Consequences, pages 121-170, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003. "Debt Intolerance," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 1-74.
    4. Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Federico Sturzenegger, 2023. "A balance‐sheet approach to fiscal sustainability," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 44(1), pages 61-84, March.
    5. Buiter, Willem & Patel, Urjit R., 2010. "Fiscal Rules in India: Are They Effective?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7810, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Buiter, Willem & Patel, Urjit R., 2006. "India's Public Finances: Excessive Budget Deficits, a Government-Abused Financial System and Fiscal Rules," CEPR Discussion Papers 5502, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Buiter Willem H. & Urjit R. Patel, 2006. "Excessive Budget Deficits, a Government-Abused Financial System, and Fiscal Rules," India Policy Forum, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 2(1), pages 1-54.
    8. Buiter, Willem H. & Patel, Urjit R., 1992. "Debt, deficits, and inflation: An application to the public finances of India," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 171-205, March.
    9. Charles Wyplosz, 2007. "Debt Sustainability Assessment: The IMF Approach and Alternatives," IHEID Working Papers 03-2007, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pradhan, Krishanu, 2014. "Assessment of India's fiscal and external sector vulnerability: A balance sheet approach," Working Papers 327, Institute for Social and Economic Change, Bangalore.
    2. Das, Piyali & Ghate, Chetan, 2022. "Debt decomposition and the role of inflation: A security level analysis for India," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    3. Zhang, Dalu, 2014. "Vine copulas and applications to the European Union sovereign debt analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 46-56.
    4. Bruce N. Lehmann & David M. Modest, 1985. "The Empirical Foundations of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory I: The Empirical Tests," NBER Working Papers 1725, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Brutti, Filippo, 2008. "Legal enforcement, public supply of liquidity and sovereign risk," MPRA Paper 13949, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Furceri, Davide & Zdzienicka, Aleksandra, 2012. "How costly are debt crises?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 726-742.
    7. Bordo, Michael D. & Meissner, Christopher M. & Stuckler, David, 2010. "Foreign currency debt, financial crises and economic growth: A long-run view," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 642-665, June.
    8. Shruti SHASTRI & A.K. GIRI & Geetilaxmi MOHAPATRA, 2017. "An empirical assessment of fiscal sustainability for selected South Asian economies," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(1(610), S), pages 163-178, Spring.
    9. Carlos Díaz Alvarado & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ugo Panizza, 2004. "Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries with an Application to Ecuador," Research Department Publications 4371, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    10. Dötz, Niko & Fischer, Christoph, 2010. "What can EMU countries' sovereign bond spreads tell us about market perceptions of default probabilities during the recent financial crisis?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2010,11, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    11. Mr. Alexander Culiuc, 2020. "Real Exchange Rate Overshooting in Large Depreciations: Determinants and Consequences," IMF Working Papers 2020/060, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Deniz Arinsoy & Erdal Özmen, 2004. "Original Sin Mystery Trinity and Unequal Blessings," ERC Working Papers 0415, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Oct 2004.
    13. Keskinsoy, Bilal, 2017. "Taxi, Takeoff and Landing: Behavioural Patterns of Capital Flows to Emerging Markets," MPRA Paper 78129, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Meng, Jingjing, 2016. "Asian emerging-market currencies in the international debt market (1994–2014)," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 20-32.
    15. Ata Ozkaya, 2013. "The Effects of Debt Intolerance and Public Debt Sustainability on Credit Ratings: Evidence From European Economies," Working Papers 011, Bahcesehir University, Betam.
    16. Mr. Alfredo Cuevas & Ms. Maria Gonzalez & Arnoldo López-Marmolejo & Davide Lombardo, 2008. "Pension Privatization and Country Risk," IMF Working Papers 2008/195, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann & Ugo Panizza, 2023. "Yet it Endures: The Persistence of Original Sin," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 1-42, February.
    18. Hans J. Blommestein & Javier Santiso, 2007. "New Strategies for Emerging Domestic Sovereign Bond Markets," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 260, OECD Publishing.
    19. Krishanu Pradhan, 2019. "Analytical Framework for Fiscal Sustainability: A Review," Review of Development and Change, , vol. 24(1), pages 100-122, June.
    20. Krishanu Pradhan, 2014. "Is India’s Public Debt Sustainable?," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 3(2), pages 241-266, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Public debt; Debt servicing; Fiscal imbalance; External indebtedness;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:mareco:v:12:y:2018:i:3:p:308-332. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.ncaer.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.