IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/joupea/v58y2021i3p599-611.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

ViEWS2020: Revising and evaluating the ViEWS political Violence Early-Warning System

Author

Listed:
  • HÃ¥vard Hegre
  • Curtis Bell
  • Michael Colaresi
  • Mihai Croicu
  • Frederick Hoyles
  • Remco Jansen
  • Maxine Ria Leis
  • Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan
  • David Randahl
  • Espen Geelmuyden Rød
  • Paola Vesco

Abstract

This article presents an update to the ViEWS political Violence Early-Warning System. This update introduces (1) a new infrastructure for training, evaluating, and weighting models that allows us to more optimally combine constituent models into ensembles, and (2) a number of new forecasting models that contribute to improve overall performance, in particular with respect to effectively classifying high- and low-risk cases. Our improved evaluation procedures allow us to develop models that specialize in either the immediate or the more distant future. We also present a formal, ‘retrospective’ evaluation of how well ViEWS has done since we started publishing our forecasts from July 2018 up to December 2019. Our metrics show that ViEWS is performing well when compared to previous out-of-sample forecasts for the 2015–17 period. Finally, we present our new forecasts for the January 2020–December 2022 period. We continue to predict a near-constant situation of conflict in Nigeria, Somalia, and DRC, but see some signs of decreased risk in Cameroon and Mozambique.

Suggested Citation

  • HÃ¥vard Hegre & Curtis Bell & Michael Colaresi & Mihai Croicu & Frederick Hoyles & Remco Jansen & Maxine Ria Leis & Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan & David Randahl & Espen Geelmuyden Rød & Paola Vesco, 2021. "ViEWS2020: Revising and evaluating the ViEWS political Violence Early-Warning System," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 58(3), pages 599-611, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:joupea:v:58:y:2021:i:3:p:599-611
    DOI: 10.1177/0022343320962157
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0022343320962157
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/0022343320962157?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brian Greenhill & Michael D. Ward & Audrey Sacks, 2011. "The Separation Plot: A New Visual Method for Evaluating the Fit of Binary Models," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(4), pages 991-1002, October.
    2. Lars-Erik Cederman & Simon Hug & Lutz F. Krebs, 2010. "Democratization and civil war: Empirical evidence," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 47(4), pages 377-394, July.
    3. Sarah Birch & Ursula Daxecker & Kristine Höglund, 2020. "Electoral violence: An introduction," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 57(1), pages 3-14, January.
    4. Montgomery, Jacob M. & Hollenbach, Florian M. & Ward, Michael D., 2012. "Improving Predictions using Ensemble Bayesian Model Averaging," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(3), pages 271-291, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rød, Espen Geelmuyden & Gåsste, Tim & Hegre, Håvard, 2024. "A review and comparison of conflict early warning systems," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 96-112.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Robert A. Blair & Nicholas Sambanis, 2020. "Forecasting Civil Wars: Theory and Structure in an Age of “Big Data†and Machine Learning," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 64(10), pages 1885-1915, November.
    2. Jansesberger, Viktoria, 2024. "Storms, floods, landslides and elections in India's growing metropolises: Hotbeds for political protest?," Working Papers 28, University of Konstanz, Cluster of Excellence "The Politics of Inequality. Perceptions, Participation and Policies".
    3. Turnbull, Megan, 2021. "When armed groups refuse to carry out election violence: Evidence from Nigeria," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    4. Ildikó Szőcs & Balázs Dobi & Judit Lám & Károly Orbán-Kis & Unto Häkkinen & Éva Belicza & Dániel Bereczki & Ildikó Vastagh, 2020. "Health related quality of life and satisfaction with care of stroke patients in Budapest: A substudy of the EuroHOPE project," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(10), pages 1-22, October.
    5. Ryan Federo & Angel Saz-Carranza & Xavier Fernandez-í-Marin & Carlos Losada, 2023. "CEO selection in intergovernmental organizations: the clash between control and efficiency in governance," Journal of Management & Governance, Springer;Accademia Italiana di Economia Aziendale (AIDEA), vol. 27(1), pages 155-180, March.
    6. Angelo Secchi & Federico Tamagni & Chiara Tomasi, 2016. "Export price adjustments under financial constraints," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 49(3), pages 1057-1085, August.
    7. Ian S. Lustick & Philip E. Tetlock, 2021. "The simulation manifesto: The limits of brute‐force empiricism in geopolitical forecasting," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(2), June.
    8. Marte Nilsen, 2013. "Will democracy bring peace to Myanmar?," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 16(2), pages 115-141, June.
    9. Samuel Bazzi & Robert A. Blair & Christopher Blattman & Oeindrila Dube & Matthew Gudgeon & Richard Peck, 2022. "The Promise and Pitfalls of Conflict Prediction: Evidence from Colombia and Indonesia," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(4), pages 764-779, October.
    10. Barriga, Alicia & Ferguson, Neil T. N． & Fiala, Nathan & Leroch, Martin Alois, 2023. "Ethnic cooperation and conflict in Kenya," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    11. Sunde, Uwe & Fortunato, Piergiuseppe & Cervellati, Matteo, 2011. "Democratization and Civil Liberties: The Role of Violence During the Transition," CEPR Discussion Papers 8315, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Appel, Benjamin J & Croco, Sarah E, 2024. "Democratic Backsliding and Foreign Policy," Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, Working Paper Series qt8s31h6c9, Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, University of California.
    13. Audrey Sacks, 2012. "Can Donors and Nonstate Actors Undermine Citizens' Legitimating Beliefs?," World Bank Publications - Reports 16955, The World Bank Group.
    14. Fiedler, Charlotte, 2015. "Towers of strength in turbulent times? Assessing the effectiveness of international support to peace and democracy in Kenya and Kyrgyzstan in the aftermath of interethnic violence," IDOS Discussion Papers 6/2015, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
    15. Cervellati, Matteo & Fortunato, Piergiuseppe & Sunde, Uwe, 2014. "Violence during democratization and the quality of democratic institutions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 226-247.
    16. Graefe, Andreas & Armstrong, J. Scott & Jones, Randall J. & Cuzán, Alfred G., 2014. "Combining forecasts: An application to elections," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 43-54.
    17. Bouchakour, Radhia & Saad, Mohammed, 2020. "Farm and farmer characteristics and off-farm work: evidence from Algeria," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 64(2), April.
    18. Govinda Clayton & Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, 2014. "Will we see helping hands? Predicting civil war mediation and likely success," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 31(3), pages 265-284, July.
    19. Saibu, Ghadafi, 2023. "On the edge: Delays in election results and electoral violence in Sub-Sahara Africa," IDOS Discussion Papers 19/2023, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
    20. Canile D. D Williams, 2024. "Evaluating the Effectiveness of the ECOWAS Protocol on Democracy and Good Governance in Preventing the Resurgence of Military Coups in West Africa," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 8(1), pages 255-264, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:joupea:v:58:y:2021:i:3:p:599-611. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.prio.no/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.