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Democratization and civil war: Empirical evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Lars-Erik Cederman

    (Center for Comparative and International Studies ETH Zurich, lcederman@ethz.ch)

  • Simon Hug

    (Department of Political Science, University of Geneva & Centre for the Study of Civil War, Peace Research Institute, Oslo, PRIO)

  • Lutz F. Krebs

    (Center for Comparative and International Studies ETH Zurich)

Abstract

The hypothesis that democratization triggers political violence has been proposed repeatedly in the quantitative literature, but it remains controversial with respect to both interstate and civil wars. Current empirical research continues to be afflicted by methodological and data problems related to the measurement of democracy and the task of detecting changes in such scores. In order to gain further clarity into the link between democratization and civil war, the current study introduces a new period-finding algorithm that is able to detect periods of democratization and autocratization. This allows for a more flexible way of finding directional changes in governance indicators than is possible with the rigid lag structures commonly employed in previous studies. When regressed on various measures of civil-war onset, the indicator for the initiation of a period of democratization has a strong and robust effect on conflict even in the presence of static measures of regime type. The same applies to autocratization, but its impact is much more sudden than that of democratization. Moreover, we find that the democratization effect is limited to governmental rather than territorial conflicts. Further research will be needed to confirm these results in terms of the relevant causal mechanisms, especially in ethno-nationalist civil wars.

Suggested Citation

  • Lars-Erik Cederman & Simon Hug & Lutz F. Krebs, 2010. "Democratization and civil war: Empirical evidence," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 47(4), pages 377-394, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:joupea:v:47:y:2010:i:4:p:377-394
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Cervellati, Matteo & Sunde, Uwe, 2011. "Democratization, Violent Social Conflicts, and Growth," IZA Discussion Papers 5643, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Hackenesch, Christine & Leininger, Julia & Mross, Karina, 2020. "What the EU should do for democracy support in Africa: Ten proposals for a new strategic initiative in times of polarisation," IDOS Discussion Papers 14/2020, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
    3. Appel, Benjamin J & Croco, Sarah E, 2024. "Democratic Backsliding and Foreign Policy," Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, Working Paper Series qt8s31h6c9, Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, University of California.
    4. Clayton Thyne & Kendall Hitch, 2020. "Democratic versus Authoritarian Coups: The Influence of External Actors on States’ Postcoup Political Trajectories," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 64(10), pages 1857-1884, November.
    5. Kinclová Lenka, 2015. "Legitimacy of the “Humanitarian Military Intervention”: An Empirical Assessment," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 21(1), pages 111-152, January.
    6. Håvard Hegre & Curtis Bell & Michael Colaresi & Mihai Croicu & Frederick Hoyles & Remco Jansen & Maxine Ria Leis & Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan & David Randahl & Espen Geelmuyden Rød & Paola Vesco, 2021. "ViEWS2020: Revising and evaluating the ViEWS political Violence Early-Warning System," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 58(3), pages 599-611, May.
    7. Philip Hultquist, 2017. "Is collective repression an effective counterinsurgency technique? Unpacking the cyclical relationship between repression and civil conflict," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 34(5), pages 507-525, September.
    8. Ricciuti Roberto & Rossignoli Domenico, 2017. "Bridging Economics and International Relations to Understand State Capacity and War in Sub-Saharan Africa," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 23(4), pages 1-8, December.
    9. Rossignoli Domenico, 2016. "Democracy, State Capacity and Civil Wars: A New Perspective," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 22(4), pages 427-437, December.
    10. Cervellati, Matteo & Fortunato, Piergiuseppe & Sunde, Uwe, 2011. "Democratization and Civil Liberties: The Role of Violence During the Transition," IZA Discussion Papers 5555, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. Bruno Emmanuel Ongo Nkoa & Honoré Tekam Oumbé & Georges Ngnouwal Eloundou & Thierry Asngar Mamadou, 2022. "Impact of access to electricity on internal conflicts in Africa: Does income inequality matter?," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 34(3), pages 395-409, September.
    12. Fiedler, Charlotte, 2015. "Towers of strength in turbulent times? Assessing the effectiveness of international support to peace and democracy in Kenya and Kyrgyzstan in the aftermath of interethnic violence," IDOS Discussion Papers 6/2015, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
    13. Cervellati, Matteo & Fortunato, Piergiuseppe & Sunde, Uwe, 2014. "Violence during democratization and the quality of democratic institutions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 226-247.
    14. Krebs, Lutz, 2016. "Tilting at windmills or whipping up a storm? Elites and ethno-nationalist conflict during democratisation," MERIT Working Papers 2016-064, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    15. Henrikas BartuseviÄ ius & Svend-Erik Skaaning, 2018. "Revisiting democratic civil peace," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 55(5), pages 625-640, September.
    16. Christian P. Schneider & Edeltraud Guenther & Dominik Möst, 2024. "International technology transfer to Africa in light of the SDGs: What do we know about the barriers?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(4), pages 2129-2151, May.
    17. Marte Nilsen, 2013. "Will democracy bring peace to Myanmar?," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 16(2), pages 115-141, June.
    18. Haar Roberta & Krebs Lutz F., 2015. "Choosing to Intervene: US Domestic Politics and Moral Imperatives," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 21(4), pages 497-505, December.
    19. Olalekan C. Okunlola & Olumide A. Ayetigbo & Sam O. Ajiye, 2022. "Does a free market system reduce conflict in Africa?," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 24(1), pages 147-170, June.
    20. Eelco van der Maat, 2021. "Simplified complexity: Analytical strategies for conflict event research," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 38(1), pages 87-108, January.
    21. Mroß, Karina, 2015. "The fragile road towards peace and democracy: insights on the effectiveness of international support to post-conflict Burundi," IDOS Discussion Papers 3/2015, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
    22. Abbey Steele & Livia I Schubiger, 2018. "Democracy and civil war: The case of Colombia," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 35(6), pages 587-600, November.

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