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A Theory of Post-Civil War Democratization

Author

Listed:
  • Leonard Wantchekon

    (New York University, Department of Economics at Yale University)

  • Zvika Neeman

    (Boston University, Center for Rationality and Interactive Decision Theory at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem)

Abstract

We model the transition from a chaotic status quo to a more orderly political regime as a two-stage game involving two warring factions and the citizens. The warring factions move first and decide the form of government by (1) inviting an external arbitrator, (2) choosing the people as arbitrator, i.e. democratizing or (3) maintaining the status quo. We analyze the conditions under which democracy is likely to emerge as the outcome of the game. We show that citizens prefer democracy because it generates a sociopolitical order that protects them against ‘banditry’ and expropriation. Because the citizens’ actions generate positive externalities, incentives for democratization are generated in part by the fact that protection against expropriation under democracy also indirectly benefits the warring factions.

Suggested Citation

  • Leonard Wantchekon & Zvika Neeman, 2002. "A Theory of Post-Civil War Democratization," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 14(4), pages 439-464, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jothpo:v:14:y:2002:i:4:p:439-464
    DOI: 10.1177/095162902774006822
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wood,Elisabeth Jean, 2000. "Forging Democracy from Below," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521788878, September.
    2. Wood,Elisabeth Jean, 2000. "Forging Democracy from Below," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521783231, September.
    3. Mr. Jose Martelino & Mr. S. Nuri Erbas & Mr. Adnan Mazarei & Ms. Sena Eken & Mr. Paul Cashin, 1995. "Economic Dislocation and Recovery in Lebanon," IMF Occasional Papers 1995/017, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. John Ishiyama, 2014. "Civil Wars and Party Systems," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 95(2), pages 425-447, June.
    2. Corinne Deléchat & Ejona Fuli & Dafina Mulaj & Gustavo Ramirez & Rui Xu, 2018. "Exiting from Fragility in Sub‐Saharan Africa: The Role of Fiscal Policies and Fiscal Institutions," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 86(3), pages 271-307, September.

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