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Is Terrorism Really a Weapon of the Weak? Debunking the Conventional Wisdom

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  • Virginia Page Fortna

Abstract

That terrorism is a “weapon of the weak†is such deeply held conventional wisdom it has become almost a cliché. “Weak†means many different things in the literature, however, and little rigorous empirical research has tested the contention that weaker groups, however conceived, are more likely to employ terrorism. This article explores prominent weapon of the weak arguments to develop testable hypotheses about group strength and the prevalence of terrorism. Using measures of deliberately indiscriminate attacks on civilians by rebel groups in civil conflicts, as well as multiple measures of rebel strength, it examines systematically whether weaker groups are more likely to employ terrorism. I find surprisingly little empirical support for the conventional wisdom. There is no clear or consistent evidence that deliberately indiscriminate terrorism is a weapon of the weak rather than the strong.

Suggested Citation

  • Virginia Page Fortna, 2023. "Is Terrorism Really a Weapon of the Weak? Debunking the Conventional Wisdom," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 67(4), pages 642-671, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:67:y:2023:i:4:p:642-671
    DOI: 10.1177/00220027221121143
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Salehyan, Idean & Siroky, David & Wood, Reed M., 2014. "External Rebel Sponsorship and Civilian Abuse: A Principal-Agent Analysis of Wartime Atrocities," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 68(3), pages 633-661, July.
    2. Justin H. Gross, 2015. "Testing What Matters (If You Must Test at All): A Context‐Driven Approach to Substantive and Statistical Significance," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 59(3), pages 775-788, July.
    3. Wood, Reed M., 2014. "From Loss to Looting? Battlefield Costs and Rebel Incentives for Violence," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 68(4), pages 979-999, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rusch, Hannes, 2023. "The logic of human intergroup conflict:," Research Memorandum 014, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).

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