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Testing What Matters (If You Must Test at All): A Context‐Driven Approach to Substantive and Statistical Significance

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  • Justin H. Gross

Abstract

For over a half century, various fields in the behavioral and social sciences have debated the appropriateness of null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) in the presentation and assessment of research results. A long list of criticisms has fueled the so‐called significance testing controversy. The conventional NHST framework encourages researchers to devote excessive attention to statistical significance while underemphasizing practical (e.g., scientific, substantive, social, political) significance. I introduce a simple, intuitive approach that grounds testing in subject‐area expertise, balancing the dual concerns of detectability and importance. The proposed practical and statistical significance test allows the social scientist to test for real‐world significance, taking into account both sampling error and an assessment of what parameter values should be deemed interesting, given theory. The matter of what constitutes practical significance is left in the hands of the researchers themselves, to be debated as a natural component of inference and interpretation.

Suggested Citation

  • Justin H. Gross, 2015. "Testing What Matters (If You Must Test at All): A Context‐Driven Approach to Substantive and Statistical Significance," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 59(3), pages 775-788, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:amposc:v:59:y:2015:i:3:p:775-788
    DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12149
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    Cited by:

    1. McCaskey Kelly & Rainey Carlisle, 2015. "Substantive Importance and the Veil of Statistical Significance," Statistics, Politics and Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1-2), pages 77-96, December.
    2. Robert A. Jackson & Matthew Pietryka, 2022. "The influence of becoming a parent on political participation in the United States," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 103(3), pages 565-580, May.
    3. Macario Rodríguez-Entrena & Florian Schuberth & Carsten Gelhard, 2018. "Assessing statistical differences between parameters estimates in Partial Least Squares path modeling," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 57-69, January.
    4. Virginia Page Fortna, 2023. "Is Terrorism Really a Weapon of the Weak? Debunking the Conventional Wisdom," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 67(4), pages 642-671, April.
    5. Akisato Suzuki, 2023. "Uncertainty in grid data: a theory and comprehensive robustness test," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(5), pages 4477-4491, October.

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