IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/jocore/v66y2022i3p504-528.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Sticks and Stones? Connecting Insurgent Propaganda with Violent Outcomes

Author

Listed:
  • Maura R. Cremin
  • Bogdan G. Popescu

Abstract

In this paper, we analyze the relationship between ISIS propaganda content and ISIS-inspired attacks by those outside of the group’s control. We examine the content of ISIS’ English language magazines, as well as speeches by two of its top leaders. We find that statements made about enemy countries in most contexts are not associated with a higher likelihood of violence in those countries. However, when a country is mentioned in ISIS propaganda in the context of its participation in the air campaign, this corresponds to an increased likelihood that the country will experience a violent attack. This suggests that propaganda highlighting key military adversaries may play a role in directing attackers that are outside the control of the organization’s hierarchy to the group’s preferred targets.

Suggested Citation

  • Maura R. Cremin & Bogdan G. Popescu, 2022. "Sticks and Stones? Connecting Insurgent Propaganda with Violent Outcomes," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 66(3), pages 504-528, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:66:y:2022:i:3:p:504-528
    DOI: 10.1177/00220027211027291
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/00220027211027291
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/00220027211027291?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stefano Della Vigna & Ruben Enikolopov & Vera Mironova & Maria Petrova & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya, 2014. "Cross-Border Media and Nationalism: Evidence from Serbian Radio in Croatia," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(3), pages 103-132, July.
    2. Alan B. Krueger & Jitka Maleckova, 2003. "Education, Poverty and Terrorism: Is There a Causal Connection?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 119-144, Fall.
    3. Warren, T. Camber, 2014. "Not by the Sword Alone: Soft Power, Mass Media, and the Production of State Sovereignty," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 68(1), pages 111-141, January.
    4. Mitts, Tamar, 2019. "From Isolation to Radicalization: Anti-Muslim Hostility and Support for ISIS in the West," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 113(1), pages 173-194, February.
    5. Tavares, Jose, 2004. "The open society assesses its enemies: shocks, disasters and terrorist attacks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(5), pages 1039-1070, July.
    6. Reese, Michael J. & Ruby, Keven G. & Pape, Robert A., 2017. "Days of Action or Restraint? How the Islamic Calendar Impacts Violence," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 111(3), pages 439-459, August.
    7. repec:hal:pseose:halshs-01053370 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jomon A. Paul & Aniruddha Bagchi, 2019. "Civil Liberties and Terrorism in Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 275(2), pages 623-651, April.
    2. Syed Muhammad All-E-Raza Rizvi & Marie-Ange Véganzonès-Varoudakis, 2019. "Economic, social, and institutional determinants of domestic conflict in fragile States," Working Papers hal-02340977, HAL.
    3. Axel Dreher & Merle Kreibaum, 2016. "Weapons of choice," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 53(4), pages 539-553, July.
    4. Simon Varaine & Raul Magni-Berton & Ismaël Benslimane & Paolo Crosetto, 2024. "Egoism and Altruism in Intergroup Conflict," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 68(2-3), pages 348-380, March.
    5. Asongu, Simplice A. & Le Roux, Sara & Singh, Pritam, 2021. "Fighting terrorism in Africa: Complementarity between inclusive development, military expenditure and political stability," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(5), pages 897-922.
    6. Michael Jetter & David Stadelmann, 2019. "Terror per Capita," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 86(1), pages 286-304, July.
    7. Mirza, Daniel & Verdier, Thierry, 2008. "International trade, security and transnational terrorism: Theory and a survey of empirics," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 179-194, June.
    8. Marco Alfano & Joseph-Simon Görlach, 2023. "Terrorism, Media Coverage, and Education: Evidence from al-Shabaab Attacks in Kenya," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 21(2), pages 727-763.
    9. Vicente, Pedro C. & Vilela, Inês, 2022. "Preventing Islamic radicalization: Experimental evidence on anti-social behavior," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 474-485.
    10. Bagchi, Aniruddha & Paul, Jomon A., 2018. "Youth unemployment and terrorism in the MENAP (Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan) region," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 9-20.
    11. Campos, Nauro F. & Gassebner, Martin, 2009. "International Terrorism, Political Instability and the Escalation Effect," IZA Discussion Papers 4061, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Christopher Gelpi & Nazli Avdan, 2018. "Democracies at risk? A forecasting analysis of regime type and the risk of terrorist attack," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 35(1), pages 18-42, January.
    13. Erwann Michel-Kerjan & Paul A. Raschky & Howard C. Kunreuther, 2009. "Corporate Demand for Insurance: An Empirical Analysis of the U.S. Market for Catastrophe and Non-Catastrophe Risks," Working Papers 2009-10, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    14. Krieger, Tim & Brockhoff, Sarah & Meierrieks, Daniel, 2012. "Great Expectations and Hard Times The (Nontrivial) Impact of Education on Domestic Terrorism," VfS Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 62083, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    15. Halkos, George & Managi, Shunsuke & Zisiadou, Argyro, 2017. "Analyzing the determinants of terrorist attacks and their market reactions," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 57-73.
    16. Kis-Katos, Krisztina & Liebert, Helge & Schulze, Günther G., 2011. "On the origin of domestic and international terrorism," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(S1), pages 17-36.
    17. William F. Shughart, 2011. "Terrorism in Rational Choice Perspective," Chapters, in: Christopher J. Coyne & Rachel L. Mathers (ed.), The Handbook on the Political Economy of War, chapter 8, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    18. Gustavo Canavire-Bacarreza & Alejandra Montoya-Agudelo & Felipe Bedoya-Maya, 2017. "An Uphill Battle: The Relationship Between Geography and Terrorism," Documentos de Trabajo de Valor Público 15759, Universidad EAFIT.
    19. Asongu, Simplice & Tchamyou, Vanessa & Asongu, Ndemaze & Tchamyou, Nina, 2019. "Fighting terrorism in Africa when existing terrorism levels matter," MPRA Paper 102026, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Cathérine Müller & Joppe de Ree, 2009. "The Threat of Terrorism: The Perspective of a Policy-Maker," Economics of Security Working Paper Series 3, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:66:y:2022:i:3:p:504-528. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://pss.la.psu.edu/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.