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Coercion and Provocation

Author

Listed:
  • Allan Dafoe
  • Sophia Hatz
  • Baobao Zhang

Abstract

Threats and force, by increasing expected costs, should reduce the target’s resolve. However, they often seem to increase resolve. We label this phenomenon provocation. We review instances of apparent provocation in interstate relations and offer a theory based on the logic of reputation and honor. We also consider alternative explanations: confounding or mis-imputation of resolve; revelation of information, character, or capabilities; or generalized sunk cost reasoning. Using survey experiments, we systematically evaluate whether provocation exists and what may account for it. We employ design-based causal inference techniques—a hypothetical natural experiment, a placebo treatment, and ruling out mediators—to evaluate our key hypotheses. We find strong evidence of provocation and suggestive evidence that it arises from considerations of honor, vengeance, and reputation. Our experimental design minimizes the risk that this result arises from our alternative explanations.

Suggested Citation

  • Allan Dafoe & Sophia Hatz & Baobao Zhang, 2021. "Coercion and Provocation," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 65(2-3), pages 372-402, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:65:y:2021:i:2-3:p:372-402
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002720957078
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lorenzo Rocco & Zié Ballo, 2008. "Provoking a civil war," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 134(3), pages 347-366, March.
    2. Gartner, Scott Sigmund, 2008. "The Multiple Effects of Casualties on Public Support for War: An Experimental Approach," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 102(1), pages 95-106, February.
    3. Berinsky, Adam J. & Huber, Gregory A. & Lenz, Gabriel S., 2012. "Evaluating Online Labor Markets for Experimental Research: Amazon.com's Mechanical Turk," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(3), pages 351-368, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Katsuzo Yamamoto, 2024. "A new formal model analysis of deterrent to brinkmanship and the causes of the armament dilemma," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 36(2), pages 132-155, April.

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