IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/jocore/v64y2020i7-8p1279-1306.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Two-sided Effect of Elections on Coup Attempts

Author

Listed:
  • Suthan Krishnarajan
  • Lasse Lykke Rørbæk

Abstract

In this article, we investigate the relationship between elections and coup attempts. We argue that elections have opposing effects on the risk of coup attempts, depending on the state of the economy in which they are held. Elections occurring in conditions of economic crisis spur anti-government mobilization and high levels of state repression. This increases the subsequent risk of coup attempts. Conversely, elections held during economic expansion induce pro-government mobilization and waning repression, which reduces the subsequent risk of coups. We find strong support for these propositions in a statistical analysis of 130 countries that conducted contested elections in the period 1952 to 2013. The results are robust to an array of model specifications, including when we account for election outcome, postelection economic performance, and the possibility that both elections and economic performance are endogenous to coup attempts.

Suggested Citation

  • Suthan Krishnarajan & Lasse Lykke Rørbæk, 2020. "The Two-sided Effect of Elections on Coup Attempts," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 64(7-8), pages 1279-1306, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:64:y:2020:i:7-8:p:1279-1306
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002719900001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0022002719900001
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/0022002719900001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Imai, Kosuke & Keele, Luke & Tingley, Dustin & Yamamoto, Teppei, 2011. "Unpacking the Black Box of Causality: Learning about Causal Mechanisms from Experimental and Observational Studies," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 105(4), pages 765-789, November.
    2. Stock, James H & Wright, Jonathan H & Yogo, Motohiro, 2002. "A Survey of Weak Instruments and Weak Identification in Generalized Method of Moments," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(4), pages 518-529, October.
    3. Gandhi,Jennifer, 2008. "Political Institutions under Dictatorship," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521897952, September.
    4. Alexander Galetovic & Ricardo Sanhueza, 2000. "Citizens, Autocrats, and Plotters: A Model and New Evidence on Coups D'État," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(2), pages 183-204, July.
    5. Hafner-Burton, Emilie M. & Hyde, Susan D. & Jablonski, Ryan S., 2014. "When Do Governments Resort to Election Violence?," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(1), pages 149-179, January.
    6. Fariss, Christopher J., 2014. "Respect for Human Rights has Improved Over Time: Modeling the Changing Standard of Accountability," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 108(2), pages 297-318, May.
    7. Hainmueller, Jens & Mummolo, Jonathan & Xu, Yiqing, 2019. "How Much Should We Trust Estimates from Multiplicative Interaction Models? Simple Tools to Improve Empirical Practice," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(2), pages 163-192, April.
    8. Remmer, Karen L., 1991. "The Political Impact of Economic Crisis in Latin America in the 1980s," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 85(3), pages 777-800, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Limberg, Julian, 2022. "Building a tax state in the 21st century: Fiscal pressure, political regimes, and consumption taxation," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Escriba-Folch, Abel & Meseguer, Covadonga & Wright, Joseph, 2018. "Remittances and protest in dictatorships," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 89058, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Kimberly R Frugé, 2019. "Repressive agent defections: How power, costs, and uncertainty influence military behavior and state repression," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 36(6), pages 591-607, November.
    3. Christopher Wiley Shay, 2023. "Swords into ploughshares? Why human rights abuses persist after resistance campaigns," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 60(1), pages 141-156, January.
    4. Spencer Bastani & Daniel Waldenström, 2021. "Perceptions of Inherited Wealth and the Support for Inheritance Taxation," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 88(350), pages 532-569, April.
    5. Hafner-Burton, Emilie M & Pevehouse, Jon C.W. & Schneider, Christina J, 2023. "Enlightened Dictators? Good Governance In Autocratic International Organizations," Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, Working Paper Series qt99h5z506, Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, University of California.
    6. Burke Paul J., 2012. "Economic Growth and Political Survival," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-43, March.
    7. Böhme, Marcus H. & Persian, Ruth & Stöhr, Tobias, 2015. "Alone but better off? Adult child migration and health of elderly parents in Moldova," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 211-227.
    8. Travis B. Curtice & Daniel Arnon, 2020. "Deterring threats and settling scores: How coups influence respect for physical integrity rights," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 37(6), pages 655-673, November.
    9. Rubén Ruiz-Rufino & Sarah Birch, 2020. "The effect of alternation in power on electoral intimidation in democratizing regimes," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 57(1), pages 126-139, January.
    10. Mario, Gilli & Yuan, Li, 2018. "Transitions and Political Stability in Autocracies. The Role of Public Perception," Working Papers 383, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised 13 Jul 2018.
    11. Travis B. Curtice & Brandon Behlendorf, 2021. "Street-level Repression: Protest, Policing, and Dissent in Uganda," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 65(1), pages 166-194, January.
    12. Mauricio Rivera, 2017. "Authoritarian Institutions and State Repression," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 61(10), pages 2183-2207, November.
    13. Garbe, Lisa, 2023. "Pulling through elections by pulling the plug: Internet disruptions and electoral violence in Uganda," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, issue OnlineFir, pages 1-16.
    14. Joshua Holzer, 2020. "The effect of copartisan justice ministers on human rights in presidential democracies," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(9), pages 1-17, September.
    15. Hillebrand, Eric & Schnabl, Gunther & Ulu, Yasemin, 2009. "Japanese foreign exchange intervention and the yen-to-dollar exchange rate: A simultaneous equations approach using realized volatility," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 490-505, July.
    16. Wright, Austin L. & Sonin, Konstantin & Driscoll, Jesse & Wilson, Jarnickae, 2020. "Poverty and economic dislocation reduce compliance with COVID-19 shelter-in-place protocols," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 544-554.
    17. Lucia Rizzica, 2018. "When the Cat’s Away The Effects of Spousal Migration on Investments on Children," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 32(1), pages 85-108.
    18. Vieira, Flávio & MacDonald, Ronald & Damasceno, Aderbal, 2012. "The role of institutions in cross-section income and panel data growth models: A deeper investigation on the weakness and proliferation of instruments," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 127-140.
    19. Alston Lee J. & Mueller Bernardo, 2018. "Priests, Conflicts and Property Rights: the Impacts on Tenancy and Land Use in Brazil," Man and the Economy, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-26, June.
    20. Balima, Hippolyte Weneyam, 2020. "Coups d’état and the cost of debt," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 509-528.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:64:y:2020:i:7-8:p:1279-1306. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://pss.la.psu.edu/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.