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Does Violent Secessionism Work?

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  • Ryan D. Griffiths
  • Louis M. Wasser

Abstract

Recent research suggests that the strategic use of violence may increase a group’s chance of gaining independence. We investigate this topic using comprehensive data on all secessionist movements between 1900 and 2006 and an original data set on the institutional and extrainstitutional methods that secessionists have used from 1946 to 2011. Our analysis yields several important findings. First, strategy depends on context. Not all secessionist movements are the same, and many have legal and/or institutional routes to independence that shape the methods that they employ. Second, no secessionist movement challenging a contiguous state has won its sovereignty without using institutional methods, either exclusively or in combination with extrainstitutional methods. Finally, we identify four successful combinations of secessionist methods and discuss how these movements develop in relation to their strategic setting. Overall, we find no evidence that violence helps a secessionist movement to gain independence.

Suggested Citation

  • Ryan D. Griffiths & Louis M. Wasser, 2019. "Does Violent Secessionism Work?," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 63(5), pages 1310-1336, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:63:y:2019:i:5:p:1310-1336
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002718783032
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Carlos Scartascini & Mariano Tommasi, 2012. "The Making of Policy: Institutionalized or Not?," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 56(4), pages 787-801, October.
    2. Fabiana Machado & Carlos Scartascini & Mariano Tommasi, 2011. "Political Institutions and Street Protests in Latin America," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 55(3), pages 340-365, June.
    3. Carlos Scartascini & Mariano Tommasi, 2009. "The Making of Policy: Institutionalized or Not?," Research Department Publications 4644, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    4. Griffiths, Ryan D., 2015. "Between Dissolution and Blood: How Administrative Lines and Categories Shape Secessionist Outcomes," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 69(3), pages 731-751, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gaku Ito, 2021. "Why does ethnic partition foster violence? Unpacking the deep historical roots of civil conflicts," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 58(5), pages 986-1003, September.
    2. Nadav G Shelef & Yael Zeira, 2023. "International recognition and support for violence among nonpartisans," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 60(4), pages 588-603, July.
    3. Ammons, Joshua D., 2024. "Institutional effects of nonviolent and violent revolutions," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    4. Martijn Huysmans & Christophe Crombez, 2020. "Making exit costly but efficient: the political economy of exit clauses and secession," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 89-110, March.

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