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The Two-step Model of Clustered Democratization

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  • Christian Houle
  • Mark A. Kayser

Abstract

Does democratization diffuse? For over two decades, numerous studies have asserted that democratization diffuses across countries but recent research has challenged this claim. Most recently, work by Brancati and Lucardi has buttressed this null finding by demonstrating that an oft assumed mechanism for the diffusion of democratization—the diffusion of pro-democracy protests—lacks empirical support. We review this contribution in the context of recent research and pose the question: if democratization does not diffuse, then why does democratization cluster in time and space? The answer, we argue, is that democratization occurs in two steps. First, common shocks, economic or political, lead to regime collapse. Then, diffusion does emerge in a second step: new elites are more likely to install a democracy following a regime collapse if neighboring countries have recently democratized. We present evidence from democratic transitions in 125 autocracies between 1875 and 2014.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Houle & Mark A. Kayser, 2019. "The Two-step Model of Clustered Democratization," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 63(10), pages 2421-2437, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:63:y:2019:i:10:p:2421-2437
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002719875565
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Inklaar, Robert & de Jong, Harmen & Bolt, Jutta & van Zanden, Jan, 2018. "Rebasing 'Maddison': new income comparisons and the shape of long-run economic development," GGDC Research Memorandum GD-174, Groningen Growth and Development Centre, University of Groningen.
    2. Peter T. Leeson & Andrea M. Dean, 2009. "The Democratic Domino Theory: An Empirical Investigation," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(3), pages 533-551, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Boese-Schlosser, Vanessa A. & Edgell, Amanda B. & Hellmeier, Sebastian & Maerz, Seraphine F. & Lindberg, Staffan I., 2021. "How democracies prevail: democratic resilience as a two-stage process," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 28(5), pages 885-907.

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