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Political Aftershocks: The Impact of Earthquakes on Intrastate Conflict

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  • Dawn Brancati

    (Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts)

Abstract

Although many scholars, policy makers, and relief organizations suggest that natural disasters bring groups together and dampen conflicts, earthquakes can actually stimulate intrastate conflict by producing scarcities in basic resources, particularly in developing countries where the competition for scarce resources is most intense. Capitalizing on a natural experiment design, this study examines the impact of earthquakes on intrastate conflict through a statistical analysis of 185 countries over the period from 1975 to 2002. The analysis indicates that earthquakes not only increase the likelihood of conflict, but that their effects are greater for higher magnitude earthquakes striking more densely populated areas of countries with lower gross domestic products as well as preexisting conflicts. These results suggest that disaster recovery efforts must pay greater attention to the conflict-producing potential of earthquakes and undertake certain measures, including strengthening security procedures, to prevent this outcome from occurring.

Suggested Citation

  • Dawn Brancati, 2007. "Political Aftershocks: The Impact of Earthquakes on Intrastate Conflict," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 51(5), pages 715-743, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:51:y:2007:i:5:p:715-743
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002707305234
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. José García-Montalvo & Marta Reynal-Querol, 2018. "Earthquakes and Terrorism: The Long Lasting Effect of Seismic Shocks," Working Papers 1020, Barcelona School of Economics.
    3. Montalvo, José G. & Reynal-Querol, Marta, 2019. "Earthquakes and terrorism: The long lasting effect of seismic shocks," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 541-561.
    4. Joakim Kreutz, 2012. "From Tremors to Talks: Do Natural Disasters Produce Ripe Moments for Resolving Separatist Conflicts?," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 482-502, September.
    5. De Juan, Alexander & Pierskalla, Jan & Schwarz, Elisa, 2020. "Natural disasters, aid distribution, and social conflict – Micro-level evidence from the 2015 earthquake in Nepal," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    6. Chun-Ping Chang & Aziz N. Berdiev, 2015. "Do natural disasters increase the likelihood that a government is replaced?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(17), pages 1788-1808, April.
    7. Sung Hoon Kang & Mark Skidmore, 2018. "The Effects of Natural Disasters on Social Trust: Evidence from South Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-16, August.
    8. Matthew R DiGiuseppe & Colin M Barry & Richard W Frank, 2012. "Good for the money," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 49(3), pages 391-405, May.
    9. José Garcia Montalvo & Marta Reynal-Querol, 2018. "Earthquakes and terrorism: the long lasting effect of seismic shocks," Economics Working Papers 1599, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.

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