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Drought and Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa

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  • Mathieu Couttenier

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Raphaël Soubeyran

    (LAMETA - Laboratoire Montpelliérain d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - UM1 - Université Montpellier 1 - UPVM - Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - Montpellier SupAgro - Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques - UM - Université de Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier, IDEP - IDEP)

Abstract

This paper contributes to the heated debate on the link between climate and civil war. We exploit a large dataset of a drought index commonly used in hydrology, the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). The PDSI is based on a hydrological model and is a cumulative measure that takes account of past climatic variables. Our analysis takes account of country fixed effects, removal of the most influential observations, use of alternative sample periods and changes to the battle-death threshold. Overall, results show a robust link between drought and civil war in Sub-Saharan African states after independence.

Suggested Citation

  • Mathieu Couttenier & Raphaël Soubeyran, 2011. "Drought and Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa," SciencePo Working papers Main halshs-00962481, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:halshs-00962481
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00962481
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marshall Burke & John Dykema & David Lobell & Edward Miguel & Shanker Satyanath, 2010. "Climate and Civil War: Is the Relationship Robust?," NBER Working Papers 16440, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate Change; Drought; Civil War;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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