IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/jocore/v46y2002i4p484-514.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

World Economic Growth, Northern Antagonism, and North-south Conflict

Author

Listed:
  • RAFAEL REUVENY

    (School of Public and Environmental Affairs Indiana University)

  • WILLIAM R. THOMPSON

    (Department of Political Science Indiana University)

Abstract

The distribution of wealth in the world is manifested by the polarization of a rich North and a poor South. Is the North-South conflict increasing or decreasing, and does it depend on such variables as major power conflict, intra-Northern conflict, and world prosperity, as some schools of thought maintain? Focusing on these questions from a leadership-long cycle perspective suggests several hypotheses about the interrelationships between global economic growth, Northern antagonism, and North-South conflict. The effect of conflict on growth is also examined. Generating data on world economic growth and major power conflict, intra-Northern conflict, and North-South conflict for the period from 1870 to 1992, vector auto-regression analysis is used to test new hypotheses. Results provide considerable support for the new hypotheses, provide mixed support for the previous arguments, and show that the relationship between world economic growth and conflict is not the same before and after World War II.

Suggested Citation

  • Rafael Reuveny & William R. Thompson, 2002. "World Economic Growth, Northern Antagonism, and North-south Conflict," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 46(4), pages 484-514, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:46:y:2002:i:4:p:484-514
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002702046004002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0022002702046004002
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/0022002702046004002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sims, Christopher A., 1988. "Bayesian skepticism on unit root econometrics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 463-474.
    2. Joshua S. Goldstein, 1991. "A War-Economy Theory of the Long Wave," International Economic Association Series, in: Niels Thygesen & Kumaraswamy Velupillai & Stefano Zambelli (ed.), Business Cycles, chapter 12, pages 303-328, Palgrave Macmillan.
    3. Simon Kuznets, 1972. "The Gap: Concept, Measurement, Trends," International Economic Association Series, in: Gustav Ranis (ed.), The Gap Between Rich and Poor Nations, chapter 1, pages 3-58, Palgrave Macmillan.
    4. Thompson, William R. & Reuveny, Rafael, 1998. "Tariffs and Trade Fluctuations: Does Protectionism Matter as Much as We Think?," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(2), pages 421-440, April.
    5. Heejoon Kang & Rafael Reuveny, 2001. "Exploring multi-country dynamic relations between trade and conflict," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 175-196.
    6. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    7. Pollins, Brian M., 1996. "Global Political Order, Economic Change, and Armed Conflict: Coevolving Systems and the Use of Force," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 90(1), pages 103-117, March.
    8. Inder, B. A., 1984. "Finite-sample power of tests for autocorrelation in models containing lagged dependent variables," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 14(2-3), pages 179-185.
    9. Bennett T. McCallum, 1993. "Unit roots in macroeconomic time series: some critical issues," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 13-44.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. G. Jones & T. Kane, 2012. "U.S. Troops and Foreign Economic Growth," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(3), pages 225-249, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rafael Reuveny & William R. Thompson, 1999. "Economic Innovation, Systemic Leadership, and Military Preparations for War," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 43(5), pages 570-595, October.
    2. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2000. "Exchange rate anomalies in the industrial countries: A solution with a structural VAR approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 561-586, June.
    3. Babula, Ronald A. & Bessler, David A. & Reeder, John & Somwaru, Agapi, 2004. "Modeling U.S. Soy-Based Markets with Directed Acyclic Graphs and Time Series Econometrics: Evaluating the U.S. Market Impacts of High Soy Meal Prices," Working Paper ID Series 15885, United States International Trade Commission, Office of Industries.
    4. Soyoung Kim & Doo Yong Yang, 2014. "Do Capital Inflows Matter to Asset Prices? The Case of Korea," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Kyuil Chung & Soyoung Kim & Hail Park & Changho Choi & Hyun Song Shin (ed.), Volatile Capital Flows in Korea, chapter 3, pages 51-82, Palgrave Macmillan.
    5. Aubry, Mathilde & Renou-Maissant, Patricia, 2014. "Semiconductor industry cycles: Explanatory factors and forecasting," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 221-231.
    6. Pami Dua & Stephen M. Miller & David J. Smyth, 1996. "Using Leading Indicators to Forecast US Home Sales in a Bayesian VAR Framework," Working papers 1996-08, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    7. Henry Kim & Soyoung Kim & Yunjong Wang, 2005. "International Capital Flows and Boom-Bust Cycles in the Asia Pacific Region," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0506, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
    8. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Hassapis, Christis & Pittis, Nikitas, 1998. "Unit roots and long-run causality: investigating the relationship between output, money and interest rates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 91-112, January.
    9. Joseph Friedman & Yochanan Shachmurove, "undated". ""Using Vector Autoregression Models to Analyze the Behavior of the European Community Stock Markets''," CARESS Working Papres 97-04, University of Pennsylvania Center for Analytic Research and Economics in the Social Sciences.
    10. Alejandro Ramírez Vigoya & Hernando Rodríguez Zambrano, 2013. "Un análisis VAR estructural de política monetaria en Colombia," Revista Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Militar Nueva Granada, December.
    11. Soyoung Kim & Yoonbai Kim, 2016. "The RMB Debate: Empirical Analysis on the Effects of Exchange Rate Shocks in China and Japan," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(10), pages 1539-1557, October.
    12. Kim, Soyoung, 2015. "Country characteristics and the effects of government consumption shocks on the current account and real exchange rate," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 436-447.
    13. Usman Shakoor & Mudassar Rashid & Ashfaque Ali Baloch & Muhammad Iftikhar ul Husnain & Abdul Saboor, 2021. "How Aging Population Affects Health Care Expenditures in Pakistan? A Bayesian VAR Analysis," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 153(2), pages 585-607, January.
    14. Nguyen, Bao & Sum, Dek, 2019. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Trade Balance Adjustments in Papua New Guinea," MPRA Paper 93033, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Stamatopoulos Theodoros, 2005. "Prices and Exchange Rate of Hellenic Drachma (GRD), during 1981-," International Finance 0505013, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Ribeiro Ramos, Francisco Fernando, 2003. "Forecasts of market shares from VAR and BVAR models: a comparison of their accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 95-110.
    17. Soyoung Kim & Hongyi Chen, 2022. "From a Quantity to an Interest Rate‐Based Framework: Multiple Monetary Policy Instruments and Their Effects in China," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(7), pages 2103-2123, October.
    18. B. Dan Wood, 2009. "Presidential Saber Rattling and the Economy," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(3), pages 695-709, July.
    19. Pami Dua & Anirvan Banerji & Stephen M. Miller, 2006. "Performance evaluation of the New Connecticut Leading Employment Index using lead profiles and BVAR models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(6), pages 415-437.
    20. Friedman, Joseph & Shachmurove, Yochanan, 1997. "Co-movements of major European community stock markets: A vector autoregression analysis," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 257-277.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:46:y:2002:i:4:p:484-514. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://pss.la.psu.edu/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.