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Tariffs and Trade Fluctuations: Does Protectionism Matter as Much as We Think?

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  • Thompson, William R.
  • Reuveny, Rafael

Abstract

Despite the widespread assumption that tariffs reduce trade volume in the short term, it is conceivable that long-term expansion and contractions in trade actually drive tariff levels. A Granger causality analysis performed on British, U.S., French, German, Japanese, and a systematic aggregate data on GDP-tariff levels encompassing the 1854–1990 period finds mixed support for both the short- and long-term interpretations. In general, the antecedence of trade on protectionism predominates over the antecedence of protectionism on trade. One implication is that the long-term context should not be ignored in analyzing short-term dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Thompson, William R. & Reuveny, Rafael, 1998. "Tariffs and Trade Fluctuations: Does Protectionism Matter as Much as We Think?," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(2), pages 421-440, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:intorg:v:52:y:1998:i:02:p:421-440_44
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Asel Isakova & Zsoka Koczan & Alexander Plekhanov, 2016. "How much do tariffs matter? Evidence from the customs union of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 166-184, April.
    2. Federico Podestà, 2016. "Do Big Governments Promote Trade Liberalization? A Long-Term Analysis of 18 OECD Countries, 1975-2000," FBK-IRVAPP Working Papers 2016-02, Research Institute for the Evaluation of Public Policies (IRVAPP), Bruno Kessler Foundation.
    3. Rafael Reuveny & William R. Thompson, 1999. "Economic Innovation, Systemic Leadership, and Military Preparations for War," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 43(5), pages 570-595, October.
    4. Asel Isakova & Zsoka Koczan & Alexander Plekhanov, 2013. "How much do tariffs matter? Evidence from the customs union of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia," Working Papers 154, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Office of the Chief Economist.
    5. Rafael Reuveny & William R. Thompson, 2002. "World Economic Growth, Northern Antagonism, and North-south Conflict," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 46(4), pages 484-514, August.

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