IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/jocore/v43y1999i2p213-228.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Transitions from Authoritarian Rule and the Problem of Violence

Author

Listed:
  • Jakub Zielinski

    (Department of Political Science, University of Chicago)

Abstract

This article asks why some attempts at democratization trigger a military intervention while others end peacefully. The author argues that the cause of violence lies in a miscommunication within the government rather than in an intransigence of the opposition. A formal model is analyzed in which opposition, reformers, and military bargain over the extent of democratization. The reformers are better informed than the opposition about the military's attitude toward reforms. Consequently, the opposition treats the behavior of the reformers as a signal about the military. In this model, violence occurs only when the reformers are misinformed about the military. The author tests this result against historical evidence from Hungary and Poland. In 1956, both countries attempted to liberalize their dictatorships. Yet, Soviet military intervention occurred only in Hungary. The author traces the difference in the outcomes to different inferences drawn in the two countries about the Soviet attitude toward reform.

Suggested Citation

  • Jakub Zielinski, 1999. "Transitions from Authoritarian Rule and the Problem of Violence," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 43(2), pages 213-228, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:43:y:1999:i:2:p:213-228
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002799043002006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0022002799043002006
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/0022002799043002006?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Colomer, Josep M., 1991. "Transitions by Agreement: Modeling the Spanish Way," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1283-1302, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hausken, Kjell & Mattli, Walter & Plümper, Thomas, 2006. "Widening versus Deepening of International Unions," MPRA Paper 75882, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Wagner, Ben, 2012. "Push-button-autocracy in Tunisia: Analysing the role of Internet infrastructure, institutions and international markets in creating a Tunisian censorship regime," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 484-492.
    3. Hausken, Kjell & Plümper, Thomas & Schneider, Gerald, 2002. "The Trilemma of the Protectionist Autocrat: An Assessment of the Political Determinants of Foreign Economic Liberalization," MPRA Paper 75866, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pedro Puy Fraga, 2012. "Learning how the world works in order to make it work ‘better’," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 152(3), pages 333-337, September.
    2. Schlumberger, Oliver, 2021. "Puzzles of political change in the Middle East: Political liberalisation, authoritarian resilience and the question of systemic change," IDOS Discussion Papers 5/2021, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
    3. Steven Cassou & Emanuel Xavier de Oliveira, 2011. "Barriers to technological adoption in Spain and Portugal," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 10(3), pages 189-209, December.
    4. Ravi Bhavnani & Michael Ross, 2003. "Announcement, Credibility, and Turnout in Popular Rebellions," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 47(3), pages 340-366, June.
    5. Mark J. C. Crescenzi, 1999. "Violence and Uncertainty in Transitions," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 43(2), pages 192-212, April.
    6. Daniel Sutter, 1995. "Settling Old Scores," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 39(1), pages 110-128, March.
    7. Daniel Sutter, 2000. "The Transition from Authoritarian Rule," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 12(1), pages 67-89, January.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:43:y:1999:i:2:p:213-228. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://pss.la.psu.edu/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.