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The Transition from Authoritarian Rule

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  • Daniel Sutter

Abstract

I investigate conditions under which a regime and opposition can negotiate the democratic transformation of an authoritarian government using an extensive form game of perfect information. An early final decision by the regime to hold elections, which can be accomplished by delegating this decision to reformist softliners, facilitates transition. The relationship between regime strength and the potential for a negotiated democratization is quite complicated. The weakening of a regime as it relaxes repression, for instance, can block a negotiated transition: a regime can be strong enough to hold on to power but too weak to negotiate. The possibility of a coup by regime supporters following an electoral defeat can, but does not necessarily, foreclose a peaceful transition.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Sutter, 2000. "The Transition from Authoritarian Rule," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 12(1), pages 67-89, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jothpo:v:12:y:2000:i:1:p:67-89
    DOI: 10.1177/0951692800012001003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gary Shiu & Daniel Sutter, 1996. "The Political Economy Of Tiananmen Square," Rationality and Society, , vol. 8(3), pages 325-342, August.
    2. Lipset, Seymour Martin, 1959. "Some Social Requisites of Democracy: Economic Development and Political Legitimacy1," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(1), pages 69-105, March.
    3. Josep M. Colomer, 1995. "Game Theory And The Transition To Democracy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 100.
    4. Colomer, Josep M., 1991. "Transitions by Agreement: Modeling the Spanish Way," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1283-1302, December.
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    Keywords

    democratization; game theory;

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