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The Relationship between Coercion and Protest

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  • Ronald A. Francisco

    (University of Kansas)

Abstract

The relationship between coercion and protest, arguably the core of any theory of rebellion, remains unresolved. Competing hypotheses have emerged from formal models and empirical research. This article uses two forms of the predator-prey model to test these competing hypotheses. Time-series data from three coercive states (the German Democratic Republic, Czechoslovakia, and the Palestinian Intifada) are used to estimate parameters for both models. Results show stable, damped relationships in all three cases. The “inverted U†hypothesis receives less support than its “backlash†alternative, that is, that dissidents react strongly to extremely harsh coercion. Moreover, the study indicates that protesters adapt to coercion by changing tactics.

Suggested Citation

  • Ronald A. Francisco, 1995. "The Relationship between Coercion and Protest," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 39(2), pages 263-282, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:39:y:1995:i:2:p:263-282
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002795039002003
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mark I. Lichbach, 1994. "Rethinking Rationality and Rebellion," Rationality and Society, , vol. 6(1), pages 8-39, January.
    2. Brockett, Charles D., 1992. "Measuring Political Violence and Land Inequality in Central America," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 86(1), pages 169-176, March.
    3. Edward N. Muller & Erich Weede, 1994. "Theories of Rebellion," Rationality and Society, , vol. 6(1), pages 40-57, January.
    4. Muller, Edward N. & Seligson, Mitchell A., 1987. "Inequality and Insurgency," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 81(2), pages 425-451, June.
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