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A Measure for Crisis Instability with an Application to Space-Based Antimissile Systems

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  • Barry O'Neill

    (Department of Industrial Engineering and Management Sciences, Northwestern University)

Abstract

Crisis instability is the danger of war due to each side's fear that the other is about to attack. An index is defined to measure the degree of instability in a situation and is justified by a set of persuasive criteria that any such measure should satisfy, and also by a set of axioms based in the theory of games. Some past measures are summarized and compared. In the second part, we give a simple quantitative model of a nuclear exchange and look at the stability consequences of changing various weapons parameters and of adding a space-based missile defense system, with and without submarines. Defenses tend to harm stability unless they are both very large and designed so that the government that strikes first does not have a relative advantage in attacking the opponent's defenses.

Suggested Citation

  • Barry O'Neill, 1987. "A Measure for Crisis Instability with an Application to Space-Based Antimissile Systems," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 31(4), pages 631-672, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:31:y:1987:i:4:p:631-672
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002787031004005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Jeffrey H. Grotte, 1982. "An Optimizing Nuclear Exchange Model for the Analysis of Nuclear War and Deterrence," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 30(3), pages 428-445, June.
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