IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/jocore/v31y1987i2p203-226.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Decision Making during International Crises

Author

Listed:
  • Gregory M. Herek

    (Department of Psychology, Graduate Center of the City University of New York)

  • Irving L. Janis

    (Department of Psychology, University of California, Berkeley)

  • Paul Huth

    (Department of Political Science, University of Michigan)

Abstract

This study investigated the hypothesis that high-quality decision-making procedures during crises are associated with better crisis outcomes than are defective decision-making procedures. Presidential decision making during 19 international crises since World War II was examined for seven symptoms of defective decision making proposed by Janis and Mann (1977). Crisis outcomes were rated by outside experts in terms of their effect on U.S. vital interests and on international conflict. Results indicated that crisis outcomes tended to have more adverse effects on U.S. interests and were more likely to increase international conflict when the decision-making process was characterized by a large number of symptoms. Alternative explanations are considered and the implications of these results for improving decision makers' procedures are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Gregory M. Herek & Irving L. Janis & Paul Huth, 1987. "Decision Making during International Crises," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 31(2), pages 203-226, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:31:y:1987:i:2:p:203-226
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002787031002001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0022002787031002001
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/0022002787031002001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. de Mesquita, Bruce Bueno, 1985. "The War Trap Revisited: A Revised Expected Utility Model," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 79(1), pages 156-177, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Luterbacher Urs, 2004. "Conflict and Irrevocable Decisions," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 10(3), pages 1-9, December.
    2. Paul D. Senese, 1997. "Costs and Demands," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 41(3), pages 407-427, June.
    3. Edward P. Lazear, 2000. "Economic Imperialism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(1), pages 99-146.
    4. Kevin J. Sweeney, 2003. "The Severity of Interstate Disputes," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 47(6), pages 728-750, December.
    5. Grace Iusi Scarborough, 1988. "Polarity, Power, and Risk in International Disputes," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 32(3), pages 511-533, September.
    6. Paul A. Kowert & Margaret G. Hermann, 1997. "Who Takes Risks?," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 41(5), pages 611-637, October.
    7. Timothy Mathews & Aniruddha Bagchi, 2019. "Conflict without an Apparent Cause," Games, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-12, October.
    8. Hemda Ben-Yehuda, 1999. "Opportunity Crises: Framework and Findings, 1918-1994," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 17(1), pages 69-102, February.
    9. Samuel S. G. Wu, 1990. "To Attack or Not to Attack," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 34(3), pages 531-552, September.
    10. Roberto Ley-Borras, 1997. "Forecasts and Decisions on Economic Pacts in Mexico," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 550(1), pages 85-95, March.
    11. Vahabi,Mehrdad, 2015. "The Political Economy of Predation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107133976.
    12. Carlos Seiglie, 1999. "Altruism, Foreign Aid and Humanitarian Military Intervention," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 17(2), pages 207-223, September.
    13. Patrick James & John R. Oneal, 1991. "The Influence of Domestic and International Politics on the President's Use of Force," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 35(2), pages 307-332, June.
    14. Julia Macdonald & Jacquelyn Schneider, 2017. "Presidential Risk Orientation and Force Employment Decisions," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 61(3), pages 511-536, March.
    15. Jonathan J Adams, 2017. "The Rise and Fall of Armies," Working Papers 001002, University of Florida, Department of Economics.
    16. Chae-Han Kim, 1991. "Third-Party Participation in Wars," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 35(4), pages 659-677, December.
    17. Gil Friedman, 2005. "Commercial Pacifism and Protracted Conflict," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 49(3), pages 360-382, June.
    18. Steven J. Brams & D. Marc Kilgour, 1987. "Winding Down if Preemption or Escalation Occurs," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 31(4), pages 547-572, December.
    19. Jason B Scholz & Gregory J Calbert & Glen A Smith, 2011. "Unravelling Bueno De Mesquita’s group decision model," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 23(4), pages 510-531, October.
    20. John A. C. Conybeare, 1992. "A Portfolio Diversification Model of Alliances," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 36(1), pages 53-85, March.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:31:y:1987:i:2:p:203-226. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://pss.la.psu.edu/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.