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Arms Race Modeling

Author

Listed:
  • Stephen J. Majeski

    (Department of Political Science Syracuse University)

  • David L. Jones

    (Department of Political Science University of Illinois)

Abstract

The Richardson model has been employed frequently in the study of arm races, but seldom with empirically satisfactory results. For each of twelve pairs of arms expenditure series which are commonly proposed as arms races, we consider two potential sources for the failure of Richardson modeling efforts. First, they may not constitute arms races. Second, for those which do, the Richardson model specification may not be adequate. The methodology which enables us to explore these issues is "statistical causality analysis," as recently promulgated in time series research. Using this methodology, we find that arms expenditures are independent in a majority of the twelve cases examined. For those cases where interdependence is found, those which exhibit arms competition, the traditional Richardson model specification is not empirically supported. Finally, we provide a specific methodology for improved model specification derived from a general distributed lag model for any proposed arms race.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen J. Majeski & David L. Jones, 1981. "Arms Race Modeling," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 25(2), pages 259-288, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:25:y:1981:i:2:p:259-288
    DOI: 10.1177/002200278102500203
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Davis, Otto A. & Dempster, M. A. H. & Wildavsky, Aaron, 1966. "A Theory of the Budgetary Process," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 60(3), pages 529-547, September.
    2. Ashley, R & Granger, C W J & Schmalensee, R, 1980. "Advertising and Aggregate Consumption: An Analysis of Causality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1149-1167, July.
    3. Feige, Edgar L & Pearce, Douglas K, 1976. "Economically Rational Expectations: Are Innovations in the Rate of Inflation Independent of Innovations in Measures of Monetary and Fiscal Policy?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(3), pages 499-522, June.
    4. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Christos Kollias, 1997. "Defence spending and growth in turkey 1954-1993: A causal analysis," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 189-204.
    2. Hasan Sahin & Onur Ozsoy, 2008. "Arms Race Between Greece And Turkey: A Markov Switching Approach," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 209-216.

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