IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/defpea/v19y2008i3p209-216.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Arms Race Between Greece And Turkey: A Markov Switching Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Hasan Sahin
  • Onur Ozsoy

Abstract

Two NATO allies, Greece and Turkey, have also been considered potential threats to each other. Thus, these countries' military spending has been subject to many academic studies to observe if these potential threats trigger the military spending of both countries. Nonetheless, most regression results of those studies did not find a significant result supporting the arms race between the two countries. The current study provides an additional empirical evaluation of military spending of both countries by using an annual data set running from 1958 to 2004. The study is in spirit of Smith et al. (2000) employing a Markov switching approach, but utilizing a longer period. A Markov switching approach allows estimation of military spending of each country if both sides compete with each other to have higher spending or if they behave independently of each other.

Suggested Citation

  • Hasan Sahin & Onur Ozsoy, 2008. "Arms Race Between Greece And Turkey: A Markov Switching Approach," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 209-216.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:19:y:2008:i:3:p:209-216
    DOI: 10.1080/10242690801972154
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690801972154
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/10242690801972154?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jurgen Brauer, 1991. "Perspective," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 54-58, May.
    2. George M. Georgiou & Panayotis T. Kapopoulos & Sophia Lazaretou, 1996. "Modelling Greek-Turkish Rivalry: An Empirical Investigation of Defence Spending Dynamics," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 33(2), pages 229-239, May.
    3. Christos Kollias & Stelios Makrydakis, 1997. "Is there a Greek-Turkish arms race?: Evidence from cointegration and causality tests," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 355-379.
    4. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    5. Jurgen Brauer, 2002. "Survey and Review of the Defense Economics Literature on Greece and Turkey: What Have We Learned?," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 85-107.
    6. Dunne J. Paul & Nikolaidou Eftychia & Smith Ron P., 2005. "Is there an Arms Race between Greece and Turkey?," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 11(2), pages 140-174, November.
    7. Christos Kollias & Suzanna-Maria Paleologou, 2002. "Is there a Greek-Turkish arms race? Some further empirical results from causality tests," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(4), pages 321-328.
    8. Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1996. "Measuring Business Cycles: A Modern Perspective," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 67-77, February.
    9. Seiglie, Carlos & Liu, Peter C., 2002. "Arms races in the developing world: some policy implications," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 24(7-8), pages 693-705, November.
    10. A. S. Andreou & K. E. Parsopoulos & M. N. Vrahatis & G. A. Zombanakis, 2002. "Optimal versus required defence expenditure: The case of the Greek-Turkish arms race," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(4), pages 329-347.
    11. Hamilton, James D & Gang, Lin, 1996. "Stock Market Volatility and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 573-593, Sept.-Oct.
    12. Stephen J. Majeski & David L. Jones, 1981. "Arms Race Modeling," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 25(2), pages 259-288, June.
    13. Ron Smith & Martin Sola & Fabio Spagnolo, 2000. "The Prisoner's Dilemma and Regime-Switching in the Greek-Turkish Arms Race," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 37(6), pages 737-750, November.
    14. Susmel, Raul, 2000. "Switching Volatility in Private International Equity Markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(4), pages 265-283, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Andreas S. Andreou & George A. Zombanakis, 2011. "Financial Versus Human Resources In The Greek--Turkish Arms Race 10 Years On: A Forecasting Investigation Using Artificial Neural Networks," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 459-469, November.
    2. Andreou, Andreas S. & Zombanakis, George A., 2010. "Financial vs human resources in the Greek-Turkish arms race 10 years on," MPRA Paper 38505, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Asiye TÜTÜNCÜ & Burak ŞAHİNGÖZ, 2020. "Arms Race Between Turkey and Greece: Time-Varying Causality Analysis Abstract: An arms race is the dynamic process followed by states in the acquisition of weapons. An arms race requires mutual milita," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 28(45).
    4. Christos Kollias & Suzanna-Maria Paleologou & Andreas Stergiou, 2016. "Military expenditure in Greece: Security challenges and economic constraints," Economics of Peace and Security Journal, EPS Publishing, vol. 11(1), pages 28-34, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andreas S. Andreou & George A. Zombanakis, 2011. "Financial Versus Human Resources In The Greek--Turkish Arms Race 10 Years On: A Forecasting Investigation Using Artificial Neural Networks," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 459-469, November.
    2. Karamanis, Dimitrios & Kechrinioti, Alexandra, 2023. "The Greek-Turkish rivalry: A Bayesian VAR approach," MPRA Paper 116827, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Andreou, Andreas S. & Zombanakis, George A., 2010. "Financial vs human resources in the Greek-Turkish arms race 10 years on," MPRA Paper 38505, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Asiye TÜTÜNCÜ & Burak ŞAHİNGÖZ, 2020. "Arms Race Between Turkey and Greece: Time-Varying Causality Analysis Abstract: An arms race is the dynamic process followed by states in the acquisition of weapons. An arms race requires mutual milita," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 28(45).
    5. Christos Kollias & Suzanna-Maria Paleologou, 2002. "Is there a Greek-Turkish arms race? Some further empirical results from causality tests," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(4), pages 321-328.
    6. Christos Kollias & Suzanna-Maria Paleologou, 2003. "Domestic political and external security determinants of the demand for greek military expenditure," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(6), pages 437-445.
    7. Andreou Andreas S & Zombanakis George A, 2006. "The Arms Race between Greece and Turkey: Commenting on a Major Unresolved Issue," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 54-69, September.
    8. Dunne J. Paul & Nikolaidou Eftychia & Smith Ron P., 2005. "Is there an Arms Race between Greece and Turkey?," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 11(2), pages 140-174, November.
    9. Baele, L., 2003. "Volatility Spillover Effects in European Equity Markets," Other publications TiSEM dae0be49-4f32-433e-822b-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    10. Baele, Lieven, 2005. "Volatility Spillover Effects in European Equity Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(2), pages 373-401, June.
    11. Clements, M.C. & Krolzig, H.-M., 2001. "Modelling Business Cycle Features Using Switching Regime Models," Economics Series Working Papers 9958, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    12. Kamel Helali, 2022. "Markov Switching-Vector AutoRegression Model Analysis of the Economic and Growth Cycles in Tunisia and Its Main European Partners," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 13(1), pages 656-686, March.
    13. Nadir Ocal & Julide Yildirim, 2009. "Arms Race Between Turkey And Greece: A Threshold Cointegration Analysis," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 123-129.
    14. Edwards, Sebastian & Biscarri, Javier Gomez & Perez de Gracia, Fernando, 2003. "Stock market cycles, financial liberalization and volatility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(7), pages 925-955, December.
    15. repec:lje:journl:v:20:y:2015:i:2:p:35-51 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Abu-Qarn, Aamer S. & Abu-Bader, Suleiman, 2009. "On the dynamics of the Israeli-Arab arms race," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 931-943, August.
    17. Javier De Peña & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2002. "Do Spanish Stock Market Prices Follow a Random Walk?," Faculty Working Papers 01/02, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    18. Chung-Ming Kuan, 2013. "Markov switching model (in Russian)," Quantile, Quantile, issue 11, pages 13-40, December.
    19. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy Piger & Daniel Soques, 2022. "Contagious switching," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(2), pages 415-432, March.
    20. Clements, Michael P & Krolzig, Hans-Martin, 2003. "Business Cycle Asymmetries: Characterization and Testing Based on Markov-Switching Autoregressions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(1), pages 196-211, January.
    21. Krolzig, Hans-Martin, 2001. "Business cycle measurement in the presence of structural change: international evidence," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 349-368.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:19:y:2008:i:3:p:209-216. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/GDPE20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.