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How a War Ends

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  • Donald Wittman

    (Department of Economics University of California, Santa Cruz)

Abstract

This article discusses the necessary conditions for two countries at war to come to a settlement and explores how domestic and military costs, time preferences and attitudes toward risk affect the timing and the outcome of the peace. It views the termination of war as a process of rational calculations by the participants; unless both sides believe that they can be made better off by a settlement, the war will continue. An important result of this approach is that a reduction of hostilities may reduce the probability of a settlement taking place and thus prolong the war. It is also shown that increasing the probability of winning may not increase the probability of a settlement and that a country which only values the present need not be at a disadvantage in the negotiation.

Suggested Citation

  • Donald Wittman, 1979. "How a War Ends," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 23(4), pages 743-763, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:23:y:1979:i:4:p:743-763
    DOI: 10.1177/002200277902300408
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nash, John, 1950. "The Bargaining Problem," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 18(2), pages 155-162, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Changxia Ke & Kai A. Konrad & Florian Morath, 2015. "Alliances In The Shadow Of Conflict," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 53(2), pages 854-871, April.
    2. Schaller, Zachary & Skaperdas, Stergios, 2020. "Bargaining and conflict with up-front investments: How power asymmetries matter," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 212-225.
    3. Anderton,Charles H. & Carter,John R., 2009. "Principles of Conflict Economics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521875578, December.
    4. Bryan R. Early & Erik Gartzke, 2021. "Spying from Space: Reconnaissance Satellites and Interstate Disputes," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 65(9), pages 1551-1575, October.
    5. Yuri M. Zhukov, 2014. "Theory of Indiscriminate Violence," Working Paper 365551, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    6. Lisa J. Carlson, 1995. "A Theory of Escalation And International Conflict," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 39(3), pages 511-534, September.
    7. Frank C. Zagare, 1981. "Nonmyopic Equilibria and the Middle East Crisis of 1967," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 5(2), pages 139-162, February.
    8. Sebagh Thierry, 1995. "Recherche De Rente : Jeu de Guerre et Guerre D'enjeux - II," Journal des Economistes et des Etudes Humaines, De Gruyter, vol. 6(2-3), pages 301-320, June.

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