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The Changing Demographic and Economic Structure of Nonmetropolitan Areas in the United States

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  • Kevin F. McCarthy

    (The Rand Corporation Santa Monica, California 90406 USA)

  • Peter A. Morrison

    (The Rand Corporation Santa Monica, California 90406 USA)

Abstract

The forces underlying contemporary nonmetropolitan popula tion trends differ substantially from those that operated during the 1960s. Multivariate analyses of county-level population change between 1960-1970 and 1970-1974 support two major conclusions: (1) Migration into entirely rural nonmetropolitan counties has accelerated, evidently signaling the emergence in the 1970s of a new (or at least more complex) spatial pattern of settlement; and (2) previous growth advantages associated with manufacturing and gov ernment related activity appear to have diminished, and retirement and recre ation have emerged as important growth-inducing activities. The first finding has important implications for the rationale underlying U.S. regional development policy, in which urban nodes designated as "growth centers" figure as a necessary element for a region's takeoff or reversal of its economic decline. Under present circumstances, that rationale may define the prospects for nonmetropolitan development too narrowly by purporting that only areas with an identifiable urban node will grow, since alternatives to this model have spontaneously emerged. The second finding suggests that if opportunities for growth are to be exploited, regional develop ment policy with respect to public infrastructure and business development will need to identify exactly where these possibilities are emerging and build more specifically on them.

Suggested Citation

  • Kevin F. McCarthy & Peter A. Morrison, 1977. "The Changing Demographic and Economic Structure of Nonmetropolitan Areas in the United States," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 2(2), pages 123-142, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:inrsre:v:2:y:1977:i:2:p:123-142
    DOI: 10.1177/016001767700200202
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Beale, Calvin L., 1975. "The Revival of Population Growth in Nonmetropolitan America," Miscellaneous Publications 329283, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    2. Kuehn, John A. & Braschler, Curtis, 1977. "New Manufacturing Plants in the Nonmetro Ozarks Region," Agricultural Economic Reports 307667, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    3. C. Tucker, 1976. "Changing patterns of migration between metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas in the United States: Recent evidence," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 13(4), pages 435-443, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Huang, Tzu-Ling, 1996. "The determinants of rural population growth and decline, 1950-1990: the roles of government policy, human capital, and farm and nonfarm income," ISU General Staff Papers 1996010108000012113, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.

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