IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/iimkoz/v10y2021i2p222-231.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Excess Volatility in Bitcoin: Extreme Value Volatility Estimation

Author

Listed:
  • Parthajit Kayal
  • G. Balasubramanian

Abstract

This article investigates the excess volatility in Bitcoin prices using an unbiased extreme value volatility estimator. We capture the time-varying nature of the excess volatility using bootstrap, multi-horizon, sub-sampling and rolling-window approaches. We observe that Bitcoin price changes are almost efficient. Although Bitcoin prices exhibit high volatility and show signs of excess volatility for a few periods, it is decreasing over time. After controlling for the outliers, we also notice that the Bitcoin market shows signs of increasing maturity. Overall, Bitcoin prices show a sign of increasing efficiency with decreasing volatility. Our findings have implications for investors making investment decisions and for regulators making policy choices.

Suggested Citation

  • Parthajit Kayal & G. Balasubramanian, 2021. "Excess Volatility in Bitcoin: Extreme Value Volatility Estimation," IIM Kozhikode Society & Management Review, , vol. 10(2), pages 222-231, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:iimkoz:v:10:y:2021:i:2:p:222-231
    DOI: 10.1177/2277975220987686
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/2277975220987686
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/2277975220987686?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David Garcia & Claudio Juan Tessone & Pavlin Mavrodiev & Nicolas Perony, 2014. "The digital traces of bubbles: feedback cycles between socio-economic signals in the Bitcoin economy," Papers 1408.1494, arXiv.org.
    2. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch & Mark E. Wohar, 2018. "Terror attacks and stock-market fluctuations: evidence based on a nonparametric causality-in-quantiles test for the G7 countries," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(4), pages 333-346, March.
    3. Pavel Ciaian & Miroslava Rajcaniova & d’Artis Kancs, 2016. "The economics of BitCoin price formation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(19), pages 1799-1815, April.
    4. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Jana, R.K. & Das, Debojyoti & Roubaud, David, 2018. "Informational efficiency of Bitcoin—An extension," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 106-109.
    5. Selgin, George, 2015. "Synthetic commodity money," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 92-99.
    6. Bouri, Elie & Gupta, Rangan & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Roubaud, David, 2017. "Does Bitcoin hedge global uncertainty? Evidence from wavelet-based quantile-in-quantile regressions," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 87-95.
    7. Elie Bouri & Mahamitra Das & Rangan Gupta & David Roubaud, 2018. "Spillovers between Bitcoin and other assets during bear and bull markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(55), pages 5935-5949, November.
    8. Parkinson, Michael, 1980. "The Extreme Value Method for Estimating the Variance of the Rate of Return," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(1), pages 61-65, January.
    9. Jying-Nan Wang & Hung-Chun Liu & Shu-Mei Chiang & Yuan-Teng Hsu, 2019. "On the predictive power of ARJI volatility forecasts for Bitcoin," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(44), pages 4849-4855, September.
    10. Urquhart, Andrew, 2016. "The inefficiency of Bitcoin," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 80-82.
    11. Platanakis, Emmanouil & Urquhart, Andrew, 2019. "Portfolio management with cryptocurrencies: The role of estimation risk," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 76-80.
    12. David Garcia & Claudio Tessone & Pavlin Mavrodiev & Nicolas Perony, "undated". "The digital traces of bubbles: feedback cycles between socio-economic signals in the Bitcoin economy," Working Papers ETH-RC-14-001, ETH Zurich, Chair of Systems Design.
    13. Klein, Tony & Pham Thu, Hien & Walther, Thomas, 2018. "Bitcoin is not the New Gold – A comparison of volatility, correlation, and portfolio performance," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 105-116.
    14. Gandal, Neil & Hamrick, JT & Moore, Tyler & Oberman, Tali, 2018. "Price manipulation in the Bitcoin ecosystem," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 86-96.
    15. Blau, Benjamin M., 2018. "Price dynamics and speculative trading in Bitcoin," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 15-21.
    16. Bouri, Elie & Molnár, Peter & Azzi, Georges & Roubaud, David & Hagfors, Lars Ivar, 2017. "On the hedge and safe haven properties of Bitcoin: Is it really more than a diversifier?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 192-198.
    17. Kumar, Dilip & Maheswaran, S., 2014. "Modeling and forecasting the additive bias corrected extreme value volatility estimator," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 166-176.
    18. Garman, Mark B & Klass, Michael J, 1980. "On the Estimation of Security Price Volatilities from Historical Data," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(1), pages 67-78, January.
    19. Bariviera, Aurelio F. & Basgall, María José & Hasperué, Waldo & Naiouf, Marcelo, 2017. "Some stylized facts of the Bitcoin market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 484(C), pages 82-90.
    20. Jiro Hodoshima & Nana Otsuki, 2019. "Evaluation by the Aumann and Serrano performance index and Sharpe ratio: Bitcoin performance," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(39), pages 4282-4298, August.
    21. Balcilar, Mehmet & Bouri, Elie & Gupta, Rangan & Roubaud, David, 2017. "Can volume predict Bitcoin returns and volatility? A quantiles-based approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 74-81.
    22. Karpoff, Jonathan M., 1987. "The Relation between Price Changes and Trading Volume: A Survey," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(1), pages 109-126, March.
    23. Wei Zhang & Pengfei Wang & Xiao Li & Dehua Shen, 2018. "Some stylized facts of the cryptocurrency market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(55), pages 5950-5965, November.
    24. Nadarajah, Saralees & Chu, Jeffrey, 2017. "On the inefficiency of Bitcoin," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 6-9.
    25. Adrian Blundell-Wignall, 2014. "The Bitcoin Question: Currency versus Trust-less Transfer Technology," OECD Working Papers on Finance, Insurance and Private Pensions 37, OECD Publishing.
    26. Wenjun Feng & Yiming Wang & Zhengjun Zhang, 2018. "Can cryptocurrencies be a safe haven: a tail risk perspective analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(44), pages 4745-4762, September.
    27. Aaron Yelowitz & Matthew Wilson, 2015. "Characteristics of Bitcoin users: an analysis of Google search data," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(13), pages 1030-1036, September.
    28. Baur, Dirk G. & Dimpfl, Thomas & Kuck, Konstantin, 2018. "Bitcoin, gold and the US dollar – A replication and extension," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 103-110.
    29. Katsiampa, Paraskevi, 2017. "Volatility estimation for Bitcoin: A comparison of GARCH models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 3-6.
    30. Elie Bouri & Naji Jalkh & Peter Molnár & David Roubaud, 2017. "Bitcoin for energy commodities before and after the December 2013 crash: diversifier, hedge or safe haven?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(50), pages 5063-5073, October.
    31. Dyhrberg, Anne Haubo, 2016. "Bitcoin, gold and the dollar – A GARCH volatility analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 85-92.
    32. Yang, Dennis & Zhang, Qiang, 2000. "Drift-Independent Volatility Estimation Based on High, Low, Open, and Close Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 73(3), pages 477-491, July.
    33. Dwyer, Gerald P., 2015. "The economics of Bitcoin and similar private digital currencies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 81-91.
    34. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi, 2016. "Bitcoin: a beginning of a new phase?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(3), pages 1430-1440.
    35. Adrian (Wai-Kong) Cheung & Eduardo Roca & Jen-Je Su, 2015. "Crypto-currency bubbles: an application of the Phillips-Shi-Yu (2013) methodology on Mt. Gox bitcoin prices," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(23), pages 2348-2358, May.
    36. Jeffrey Chu & Stephen Chan & Saralees Nadarajah & Joerg Osterrieder, 2017. "GARCH Modelling of Cryptocurrencies," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-15, October.
    37. C. Baek & M. Elbeck, 2015. "Bitcoins as an investment or speculative vehicle? A first look," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 30-34, January.
    38. Dyhrberg, Anne Haubo, 2016. "Hedging capabilities of bitcoin. Is it the virtual gold?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 139-144.
    39. Brandvold, Morten & Molnár, Peter & Vagstad, Kristian & Andreas Valstad, Ole Christian, 2015. "Price discovery on Bitcoin exchanges," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 18-35.
    40. Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Satish Kumar & Rajesh Pathak, 2019. "Modelling the dynamics of Bitcoin and Litecoin: GARCH versus stochastic volatility models," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(37), pages 4073-4082, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Saji Thazhungal Govindan Nair, 2021. "On extreme value theory in the presence of technical trend: pre and post Covid-19 analysis of cryptocurrency markets," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 14(4), pages 533-561, December.
    2. Gill-de-Albornoz, Belén & Lafuente, Juan A. & Monfort, Mercedes & Ordoñez, Javier, 2024. "Bitcoin attention and economic policy uncertainty," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    3. Parthajit Kayal & Purnima Rohilla, 2021. "Bitcoin in the economics and finance literature: a survey," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(7), pages 1-21, July.
    4. Janani Sri S. & Parthajit Kayal & G. Balasubramanian, 2022. "Can Equity be Safe-haven for Investment?," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 21(1), pages 32-63, March.
    5. Varshini, Anu & Kayal, Parthajit & Maiti, Moinak, 2024. "How good are different machine and deep learning models in forecasting the future price of metals? Full sample versus sub-sample," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Flori, Andrea, 2019. "News and subjective beliefs: A Bayesian approach to Bitcoin investments," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 336-356.
    2. Andrea Flori, 2019. "Cryptocurrencies In Finance: Review And Applications," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 22(05), pages 1-22, August.
    3. Parthajit Kayal & Purnima Rohilla, 2021. "Bitcoin in the economics and finance literature: a survey," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(7), pages 1-21, July.
    4. Aurelio F. Bariviera & Ignasi Merediz‐Solà, 2021. "Where Do We Stand In Cryptocurrencies Economic Research? A Survey Based On Hybrid Analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 377-407, April.
    5. Corbet, Shaen & Lucey, Brian & Urquhart, Andrew & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2019. "Cryptocurrencies as a financial asset: A systematic analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 182-199.
    6. Cynthia Weiyi Cai & Rui Xue & Bi Zhou, 2023. "Cryptocurrency puzzles: a comprehensive review and re-introduction," Journal of Accounting Literature, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 46(1), pages 26-50, June.
    7. Bedi, Prateek & Nashier, Tripti, 2020. "On the investment credentials of Bitcoin: A cross-currency perspective," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    8. Panagiotidis, Theodore & Stengos, Thanasis & Vravosinos, Orestis, 2019. "The effects of markets, uncertainty and search intensity on bitcoin returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 220-242.
    9. Wei Zhang & Pengfei Wang & Xiao Li & Dehua Shen, 2018. "Some stylized facts of the cryptocurrency market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(55), pages 5950-5965, November.
    10. Haffar, Adlane & Le Fur, Eric, 2021. "Structural vector error correction modelling of Bitcoin price," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 170-178.
    11. ORĂȘTEAN Ramona & MĂRGINEAN Silvia Cristina & SAVA Raluca, 2019. "Bitcoin In The Scientific Literature – A Bibliometric Study," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 14(3), pages 160-174, December.
    12. Garcia-Jorcano, Laura & Benito, Sonia, 2020. "Studying the properties of the Bitcoin as a diversifying and hedging asset through a copula analysis: Constant and time-varying," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    13. Chu, Jeffrey & Chan, Stephen & Zhang, Yuanyuan, 2021. "Bitcoin versus high-performance technology stocks in diversifying against global stock market indices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 580(C).
    14. Yue, Yao & Li, Xuerong & Zhang, Dingxuan & Wang, Shouyang, 2021. "How cryptocurrency affects economy? A network analysis using bibliometric methods," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    15. Katsiampa, Paraskevi, 2019. "An empirical investigation of volatility dynamics in the cryptocurrency market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 322-335.
    16. Li, Mu-Yao & Cai, Qing & Gu, Gao-Feng & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2019. "Exponentially decayed double power-law distribution of Bitcoin trade sizes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 535(C).
    17. Zhang, Wei & Wang, Pengfei & Li, Xiao & Shen, Dehua, 2018. "The inefficiency of cryptocurrency and its cross-correlation with Dow Jones Industrial Average," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 510(C), pages 658-670.
    18. Li, Xiao & Wu, Ruoxi & Wang, Chen, 2024. "Impacts of bitcoin on monetary system: Is China's bitcoin ban necessary?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    19. Yi, Shuyue & Xu, Zishuang & Wang, Gang-Jin, 2018. "Volatility connectedness in the cryptocurrency market: Is Bitcoin a dominant cryptocurrency?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 98-114.
    20. Zhou, Siwen, 2018. "Exploring the Driving Forces of the Bitcoin Exchange Rate Dynamics: An EGARCH Approach," MPRA Paper 89445, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:iimkoz:v:10:y:2021:i:2:p:222-231. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.