IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/globus/v25y2024i5p1171-1221.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Noise of Investors’ Attention Mania in the Twenty-first-Century Indian Stock Markets: ARDL and Augmented GARCH-X Models

Author

Listed:
  • Paritosh Chandra Sinha

Abstract

What brings the equilibrium consensus in the stock markets? We hypothesize that the markets’ equilibrium consensus depends on the noise of investors’ attention mania (NIAM). We refer to the NIAM as investors’ attention heterogeneity and explore its impacts on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) Nifty and Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Sensex stocks market returns. We use the methodology of the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and augmented generalized autoregressiuve conditional heteroskedacity (GARCH)-X model, and we examine if there is the presence of NIAM at online attention searches within and across the attention layers, and within and across the stated two stock markets from 2004 to 2019 for investors’ economic–political attention searches. We have revealed that the impacts of the NIAM on the market returns are diverse in nature at the different attention layers and stock markets as well. Besides the ARCH and GARCH effects, we also document the presence of familiarity bias, attention confidence or confusion, and attention integration in the short run and long run.

Suggested Citation

  • Paritosh Chandra Sinha, 2024. "Noise of Investors’ Attention Mania in the Twenty-first-Century Indian Stock Markets: ARDL and Augmented GARCH-X Models," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 25(5), pages 1171-1221, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:globus:v:25:y:2024:i:5:p:1171-1221
    DOI: 10.1177/0972150920982507
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0972150920982507
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/0972150920982507?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jayesh M. Dhodiya & Nirav Shah, 2011. "Effect of Indian politics on the Indian stock market," International Journal of Economics and Business Research, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 3(3), pages 253-261.
    2. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1980. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 393-408, June.
    3. Zhi Da & Joseph Engelberg & Pengjie Gao, 2015. "Editor's Choice The Sum of All FEARS Investor Sentiment and Asset Prices," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(1), pages 1-32.
    4. Zhi Da & Joseph Engelberg & Pengjie Gao, 2011. "In Search of Attention," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(5), pages 1461-1499, October.
    5. Pedro Bordalo & Nicola Gennaioli & Andrei Shleifer, 2016. "Competition for Attention," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 83(2), pages 481-513.
    6. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2007. "Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(2), pages 129-152, Spring.
    7. Giovanni Cespa & Xavier Vives, 2012. "Dynamic Trading and Asset Prices: Keynes vs. Hayek," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 79(2), pages 539-580.
    8. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-738, August.
    9. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    10. Durand , Rodolphe & Jacqueminet , Anne, 2015. "Peer Conformity, Attention, and Heterogeneous Implementation of Practices in MNEs," HEC Research Papers Series 1098, HEC Paris.
    11. Grundy, Bruce D. & Kim, Youngsoo, 2002. "Stock Market Volatility in a Heterogeneous Information Economy," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(1), pages 1-27, March.
    12. Bikhchandani, Sushil & Hirshleifer, David & Welch, Ivo, 1992. "A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change in Informational Cascades," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(5), pages 992-1026, October.
    13. Grace Xing Hu & Jun Pan & Jiang Wang, 2013. "Noise as Information for Illiquidity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(6), pages 2341-2382, December.
    14. Muhammad Shahbaz & Faridul Islam & Ijaz Ur Rehman, 2016. "Stocks as Hedge against Inflation in Pakistan: Evidence from ARDL Approach," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 17(6), pages 1280-1295, December.
    15. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2008. "All That Glitters: The Effect of Attention and News on the Buying Behavior of Individual and Institutional Investors," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(2), pages 785-818, April.
    16. Plamen T. Nenov & Erling Røed Larsen & Dag Einar Sommervoll, 2016. "Thick‐Market Effects, Housing Heterogeneity, and the Determinants of Transaction Seasonality," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 126(598), pages 2402-2423.
    17. Mohammad Shameem Jawed & Amol S. Dhaigude & Archit Vinod Tapar, 2019. "The sectoral effect of demonetization on the economy: Evidence from early reaction of the Indian stock markets," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 1595992-159, January.
    18. Abhijit V. Banerjee, 1992. "A Simple Model of Herd Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(3), pages 797-817.
    19. Ripsy Bondia & Pratap Chandra Biswal & Abinash Panda, 2019. "The unspoken facets of buying by individual investors in Indian stock market," Review of Behavioral Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 11(3), pages 324-351, June.
    20. Vighneswara Swamy & Munusamy Dharani, 2019. "Investor attention using the Google search volume index – impact on stock returns," Review of Behavioral Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 11(1), pages 56-70, May.
    21. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    22. Ehab Yamani & David Rakowski, 2019. "The Endogeneity of Trading Volume in Stock and Bond Returns: An Instrumental Variable Approach," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 54(2), pages 303-344, May.
    23. Takeda, Fumiko & Wakao, Takumi, 2014. "Google search intensity and its relationship with returns and trading volume of Japanese stocks," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 1-18.
    24. Mourad Zmami & Ousama Ben-Salha, 2019. "Does Oil Price Drive World Food Prices? Evidence from Linear and Nonlinear ARDL Modeling," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-18, February.
    25. Robert B. Durand & Manapon Limkriangkrai & Lucia Fung, 2019. "Exogenous and Endogenous Attention and the Convergence of Analysts’ Forecasts," Journal of Behavioral Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 154-172, April.
    26. Eli Ofek & Matthew Richardson, 2003. "DotCom Mania: The Rise and Fall of Internet Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 1113-1137, June.
    27. Tantaopas, Parkpoom & Padungsaksawasdi, Chaiyuth & Treepongkaruna, Sirimon, 2016. "Attention effect via internet search intensity in Asia-Pacific stock markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 107-124.
    28. Rodolphe Durand & Anne Jacqueminet, 2015. "Peer conformity, attention, and heterogeneous implementation of practices in MNEs," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 46(8), pages 917-937, October.
    29. Ahmed Shafique Joyo & Lin Lefen, 2019. "Stock Market Integration of Pakistan with Its Trading Partners: A Multivariate DCC-GARCH Model Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-23, January.
    30. Tian Yang & Jinsong Liu & Qianwei Ying & Tahir Yousaf, 2019. "Media Coverage and Sustainable Stock Returns: Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-18, April.
    31. Joseph, Kissan & Babajide Wintoki, M. & Zhang, Zelin, 2011. "Forecasting abnormal stock returns and trading volume using investor sentiment: Evidence from online search," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1116-1127, October.
    32. Niklas Karlsson & George Loewenstein & Duane Seppi, 2009. "The ostrich effect: Selective attention to information," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 95-115, April.
    33. repec:bla:jfinan:v:58:y:2003:i:3:p:1113-1138 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stéphane Goutte & David Guerreiro & Bilel Sanhaji & Sophie Saglio & Julien Chevallier, 2019. "International Financial Markets," Post-Print halshs-02183053, HAL.
    2. Szczygielski, Jan Jakub & Charteris, Ailie & Bwanya, Princess Rutendo & Brzeszczyński, Janusz, 2024. "Google search trends and stock markets: Sentiment, attention or uncertainty?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    3. María José Ayala & Nicolás Gonzálvez-Gallego & Rocío Arteaga-Sánchez, 2024. "Google search volume index and investor attention in stock market: a systematic review," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 1-29, December.
    4. Ozdamar, Melisa & Sensoy, Ahmet & Akdeniz, Levent, 2022. "Retail vs institutional investor attention in the cryptocurrency market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    5. Szymon Lis, 2022. "Investor Sentiment in Asset Pricing Models: A Review," Working Papers 2022-14, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    6. Ekinci, Cumhur & Bulut, Ali Eray, 2021. "Google search and stock returns: A study on BIST 100 stocks," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    7. Tihana Škrinjarić, 2019. "Time Varying Spillovers between the Online Search Volume and Stock Returns: Case of CESEE Markets," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-30, October.
    8. Hervé, Fabrice & Zouaoui, Mohamed & Belvaux, Bertrand, 2019. "Noise traders and smart money: Evidence from online searches," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 141-149.
    9. Andrew Detzel & Hong Liu & Jack Strauss & Guofu Zhou & Yingzi Zhu, 2021. "Learning and predictability via technical analysis: Evidence from bitcoin and stocks with hard‐to‐value fundamentals," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 50(1), pages 107-137, March.
    10. Dong, Dayong & Wu, Keke & Fang, Jianchun & Gozgor, Giray & Yan, Cheng, 2022. "Investor attention factors and stock returns: Evidence from China," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    11. Takeda, Fumiko & Wakao, Takumi, 2014. "Google search intensity and its relationship with returns and trading volume of Japanese stocks," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 1-18.
    12. Xiong, Xiong & Meng, Yongqiang & Joseph, Nathan Lael & Shen, Dehua, 2020. "Stock mispricing, hard-to-value stocks and the influence of internet stock message boards," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    13. Tripathi, Abhinava & Pandey, Ashish, 2021. "Information dissemination across global markets during the spread of COVID-19 pandemic," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 103-115.
    14. Wang, Wenzhao & Su, Chen & Duxbury, Darren, 2022. "The conditional impact of investor sentiment in global stock markets: A two-channel examination," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    15. Nguyen, Cuong & Hoang, Lai & Shim, Jungwook & Truong, Phuong, 2020. "Internet search intensity, liquidity and returns in emerging markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    16. repec:men:wpaper:57_2015 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Christophe Desagre & Catherine D'Hondt, 2020. "Googlization and retail investors' trading activity," LIDAM Discussion Papers LFIN 2020004, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
    18. Roland Füss & Massimo Guidolin & Christian Koeppel, 2019. "Sentiment Risk Premia In The Cross-Section of Global Equity," Working Papers on Finance 1913, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance, revised May 2020.
    19. Szymon Lis, 2024. "Investor Sentiment in Asset Pricing Models: A Review of Empirical Evidence," Papers 2411.13180, arXiv.org.
    20. Desagre, Christophe & D’Hondt, Catherine, 2021. "Googlization and retail trading activity," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    21. Roland Fuess & Massimo Guidolin & Christian Koeppel, 2019. "Sentiment Risk Premia in the Cross-Section of Global Equity and Currency Returns," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 19116, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:globus:v:25:y:2024:i:5:p:1171-1221. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.imi.edu/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.