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Modelling the Relationship between Whole Sale Price and Consumer Price Indices: Cointegration and Causality Analysis for India

Author

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  • Aviral Kumar Tiwari

    (Aviral Kumar Tiwari is Research scholar and Faculty of Applied Economics, Faculty of Management, ICFAI University, Tripura. E-mail: aviral.eco@gmail.com)

  • Muhammad Shahbaz

    (Muhammad Shahbaz is with the Department of Management Sciences, COMSATS Institute of Information Technology, Lahore, Pakistan. E-mail: shahbazmohd@live.com)

Abstract

The study attempts to analyze the static and dynamic causality between producers’ prices measured by wholesale price index (WPI) and consumers’ prices measured by consumers’ price index (CPI) in case of India. In doing so, we have applied the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to co-integration and robustness of the ARDL approach which is examined by Johansen and Juselius’ ( 1990 ) maximum likelihood approach over the time period of 1950–2009. We found bidirectional causality between producers’ and consumers’ prices in Indian economy. Variance decomposition (VD) forecast analysis reveals that in India, producers’ prices lead consumers’ prices. This implies that WPI is determined by market forces and also a leading indicator of consumers’ prices and inflation. This gives an indication to the Indian policy analysts to control for factors affecting WPI in order to have control on CPI since CPI is used for indexation purposes for many wage and salary earners including government employees and hence it will be helpful in cutting down the excess government expenditure.

Suggested Citation

  • Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2013. "Modelling the Relationship between Whole Sale Price and Consumer Price Indices: Cointegration and Causality Analysis for India," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 14(3), pages 397-411, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:globus:v:14:y:2013:i:3:p:397-411
    DOI: 10.1177/0972150913496784
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    Cited by:

    1. Ramesh Chandra Das, 2021. "Does Minimum Support Price Have Long-Run Associations and Short-Run Interplays with Yield Rates and Quantities of Outputs? A Study on Food and Non-food Grains in India," Review of Market Integration, India Development Foundation, vol. 13(1), pages 42-65, April.
    2. Sugandha Huria & Kanika Pathania, 2018. "Dynamics of Food Inflation: Assessing the Role of Intermediaries," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 19(5), pages 1363-1378, October.
    3. Amjad Ali & Nooreen Mujahid & Yahya Rashid & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2015. "Human Capital Outflow and Economic Misery: Fresh Evidence for Pakistan," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 124(3), pages 747-764, December.
    4. Talat Afza & Khalid Ahmed & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2016. "Does Harberger–Laursen–Metzler (HLM) Exist in Pakistan? Cointegration, Causality and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition Tests," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 17(4), pages 759-778, August.
    5. Phouphet Kyophilavong & Muhammad Shahbaz & Gazi Salah Uddin, 2015. "A Note on Nominal and Real Devaluation in Laos," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 16(2), pages 236-243, April.
    6. Kai-Yin Woo & Shu-Kam Lee & Cho-Yiu Joe Ng, 2018. "An Investigation Into The Dynamic Relationship Between Cpi And Ppi: Evidence From The Uk, France And Germany," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 64(05), pages 1081-1100, July.
    7. Wang, Minggang & Tian, Lixin & Xu, Hua & Li, Weiyu & Du, Ruijin & Dong, Gaogao & Wang, Jie & Gu, Jiani, 2017. "Systemic risk and spatiotemporal dynamics of the consumer market of China," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 473(C), pages 188-204.
    8. Mujahid, Noureen & Muhammad Shahbaz, Shabbir & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2014. "Labor Market Conditions-Female Labor Supply Nexus: The Role of Globalization in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 57179, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 07 Jul 2014.
    9. Mohd, Rafede & Masih, Mansur, 2018. "Testing the asymmetric and lead-lag relationship between CPI and PPI: an application of the ARDL and NARDL approaches," MPRA Paper 112500, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Gurleen Kaur, 2021. "Inflation and Fiscal Deficit in India: An ARDL Approach," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 22(6), pages 1553-1573, December.
    11. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-584 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Nooreen Mujahid & Muhammad Shahbaz Shabbir & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2016. "Labour Market Conditions–Female Labour Supply Nexus: The Role of Globalization in Pakistan," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 17(1), pages 68-87, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    CPI and WPI; Granger causality; cointegration VDs; IRFs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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