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The Turkey-US commodity trade and the asymmetric J-curve

Author

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  • Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee

    (The University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee)

  • Huseyin Karamelikli

    (Karabuk University)

Abstract

Unlike past studies, recent studies try to separate currency appreciations from depreciations and show that indeed, the effects of exchange rate changes on the trade balance are asymmetric. We add to this literature by considering the response of the trade balance of 45 industries that trade between Turkey and the USA We find that the real lira-dollar rate has short-run asymmetric effects in 28 out of 45 industries. Short-run asymmetric effects translate into the long-run asymmetric effects in only 13 industries. While our findings are industry specific, additional analysis revealed that in some industries while depreciations had significant effects, appreciations did not, in some other industries the opposite was true. Such findings were hidden by the estimates of past traditional linear models.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Huseyin Karamelikli, 2021. "The Turkey-US commodity trade and the asymmetric J-curve," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 943-973, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:ecopln:v:54:y:2021:i:4:d:10.1007_s10644-020-09298-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s10644-020-09298-1
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    1. Fatma Ünlü, 2024. "Trade Balance, Real Exchange Rate and Trade Policy Uncertainty in Türkiye: Evidence from the SVAR Approach," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, vol. 0(40), pages 63-75, June.
    2. Jungho Baek & Jee Hee Yoon, 2023. "The Korea‐Vietnam trade and the bilateral exchange rate: Asymmetric evidence from commodity trade data," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(1), pages 124-148, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asymmetric J-curve; Nonlinear ARDL; Turkish-US trade; 45 industries;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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