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Asymmetric J-curve: evidence from industry trade between U.S. and U.K

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  • Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee
  • Muhammad Ali Nasir

Abstract

Previous research that assessed the impact of exchange rate changes on the trade balance between the U.S. and U.K. assumed the effects are symmetric. In this paper, we add to the literature on the asymmetric J-curve phenomenon by considering the trade balance of 68 two-digit industries that trade between the two countries. We find short-run asymmetric effects of the real dollar-pound rate in almost all industries. However, short-run asymmetric effects were translated into significant long-run asymmetric effects in 25 industries. Indeed, the asymmetric J-curve hypothesis was supported in 18 industries.

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  • Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Muhammad Ali Nasir, 2020. "Asymmetric J-curve: evidence from industry trade between U.S. and U.K," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(25), pages 2679-2693, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:52:y:2020:i:25:p:2679-2693
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2019.1693700
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    Cited by:

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    2. Thampanya, Natthinee & Nasir, Muhammad Ali & Huynh, Toan Luu Duc, 2020. "Asymmetric correlation and hedging effectiveness of gold & cryptocurrencies: From pre-industrial to the 4th industrial revolution✰," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    3. Mesagan, Ekundayo Peter & Alimi, Olorunfemi Yasiru & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2022. "The asymmetric effects of exchange rate on trade balance and output growth," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    4. Parray Waseem A. & Wani Suadat H. & Yasmin Effat, 2022. "Determinants of the Trade Balance in India. Evidence from a Post-Liberalisation Period," Studia Universitatis „Vasile Goldis” Arad – Economics Series, Sciendo, vol. 32(4), pages 16-37, December.
    5. Homamul Islam, 2021. "Evaluating the Persistence of j Curve Phenomenon in the Bilateral Trade between Bangladesh and USA: The ARDL Bounds Testing Approach and Granger Causality Analysis," International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 7(2), pages 74-81, 06-2021.
    6. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Huseyin Karamelikli, 2021. "Asymmetric J-curve: evidence from UK-German commodity trade," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1029-1081, November.
    7. Gobbi, Lucio & Lucarelli, Stefano, 2022. "Pound Sterling depreciation and the UK's trade balance versus the USA's: Industry-level estimates," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 206-220.

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