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External Sector: Between Congestion and Sanctions—‘Syrian Economy Case, 1987–2018’

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  • Forat Suliman
  • Homam Khwanda

Abstract

Since the outbreak of the Syrian crisis in March 2011, the USA, European Union, Arab League and several other regulatory entities imposed negative economic sanctions on Syria—some of the most comprehensive ever implemented. This article first provides an assessment of Syrian foreign trade sector during the reform period of the 2000s and its impact on economic growth. Second, it estimates the impact of sanctions and conflict on the trade sector of the Syrian economy. The analysis is conducted using a panel-gravity model between Syria and 78 trading partners (1987–2017). Multilateral sanctions and conflict-related disruptions demonstrate a large significant negative impact on Syria-bilateral trade flow by 65 per cent. We attempt to find out whether the Syrian economy was able to divert trade away from Europe and/or conduct de-Europeanisation. Findings confirm that the Syrian economy was unable to divert trade flow to Asian and other countries due to the conflict-related congestion and distance factor. JEL: C33, F10

Suggested Citation

  • Forat Suliman & Homam Khwanda, 2020. "External Sector: Between Congestion and Sanctions—‘Syrian Economy Case, 1987–2018’," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 55(3), pages 382-401, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:fortra:v:55:y:2020:i:3:p:382-401
    DOI: 10.1177/0015732520919839
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Drezner,Daniel W., 1999. "The Sanctions Paradox," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521644150, January.
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    3. Drezner,Daniel W., 1999. "The Sanctions Paradox," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521643320, January.
    4. Caruso Raul, 2003. "The Impact of International Economic Sanctions on Trade: An Empirical Analysis," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 9(2), pages 1-36, April.
    5. Zaki Mehchy & Rabie Nasser & Marc Schiffbauer, 2015. "Trade determinants and potential of Syria: using a gravity model ‘with an estimation of the Syrian crisis’ impact on exports’," Middle East Development Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 226-251, July.
    6. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1992. "Measuring International Capital Mobility: A Review," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(2), pages 197-202, May.
    7. Liudmila Popova & Ehsan Rasoulinezhad, 2016. "Have Sanctions Modified Iran’s Trade Policy? An Evidence of Asianization and De-Europeanization through the Gravity Model," Economies, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-15, October.
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    Cited by:

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sanctions; trade policy; gravity model; conflict; Syria;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General

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